Varengold Bank Research Team
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our last Daily FX Report in this week. According to the speculations of many economists and market strategists, the ECB lowered their key interest rate by further 25 basis points to 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent.
However, we wish you a relaxing weekend.
Market Review – Fundamental Perspective
Growing speculations the Bank of Australia will cut its key benchmark on its next week’s gathering and have caused the longest frame of daily losses of the AUD/NZD within 12 years. Therefore the AUD is heading towards a weekly decline and dropped to 1.2042 NZD, the weakest since October 2009, before reaching yesterday’s closing at 1.2048 NZD. This would be a 0.5 percent weekly loss, the 7th in a row. In contrast, the Australian currency appreciated 0.1 percent to 102.60 U.S. cents, while the NZD even succeeded to add 0.3 percent to 83.18 U.S. cents. In a statement tonight, the RBA announced that the service index tumbled to 44.1 last month from 49.6 in March, which indicates a deepening contraction of the nation’s economy. In contrast, the index for producer prices climbed 0.3 percent in the first quarter, after having gained 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.
The so-called safe haven currencies like USD and JPY suffered from estimates that today releases of the U.S. labor market will confirm an unchanged unemployment rate of 7.6 percent in April. Meanwhile, forecasts expects a surplus of 140,000 workers in non-farm payrolls following an 88,000 win in the previous month, referring to Bloomberg News. On its announcement on the 1st of May, the Federal Reserve emphasized the continuation of the third round of quantitative easing measures including the monthly 85 billion USD bond-buying program to accelerate the recovery of world’s biggest economy. Furthermore, the officials left room for modifications of the amount of asset purchases according to the current needs of the business. As a result, the AUD fetched 0.2 percent versus the JPY and was at 100.54, compensating a weekly loss of 0.2 percent. The NZD rallied 0.4 percent against the JPY in the past five trading days and traded at 83.46 JPY. The EUR/USD declined to 1.3070.
Daily Technical Analysis - Our Focus Currencies for Today
AUD/CAD (4 Hours)
After a rebound from the resistance level around 1.0698 on the 10th of April, the AUD has been dropping versus the CAD inside a bearish Standard Deviation Channel to the support level around 1.0305. There the rate experienced demand and rallied up above the middle channel line, while the Stochastic is set to enter its overbought market zone. But backed by a bullish OsMA gains to the upper channel line might be seen.
Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hours)
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