EUR/USD: under pressure as the ECB looms

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0998

The common currency is under pressure as the ECB's decision looms, and despite broad dollar weakness. Speculators are taking profits out of the table ahead of the meeting, as the pair failed to rally beyond the 1.1040/50 region a couple of times this previous days. The macroeconomic calendar has been quite light during the European session, and will remain so during US trading hours, and the pair is expected to remain within its recent range, although the technical picture points to a retest of the weekly low during the upcoming hours, at 1.0940, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price is currently developing below its 20 and 100 SMAs, both around the 1.0980 level. In the same chart, the technical indicators are within bearish territory, but with no clear directional momentum. In the 4 hours chart, a tepid bearish tone is also present, with the pair pressuring the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily slump, and the price below the moving averages, as the RSI accelerates its decline below 50.

Support levels: 1.0940 1.0910 1.0880

Resistance levels: 1.1000 1.1045 1.1080

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4207

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The GBP/USD managed to advance up to 1.4240 early Wednesday, helped by manufacturing and industrial production figures, generally better than market's expectations. as Industrial Production is estimated to have increased by 0.3% monthly basis, below market expectations but reversing the negative readings of the previous month. Manufacturing in the same period rose by 0.7%, against the 0.2% expected and than the previous -0.2%. But the pair retreats ahead of the US opening on improved market sentiment. Confined to a limited intraday range, the 1 hour chart presents a neutral stance, as the price is resting above a horizontal 20 SMA, while the technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the pair is losing the positive tone seen early Europe, as the price is moving below the 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned south around their mid-lines. Below 1.4170, the risk turns towards the downside, with scope to decline down to 1.4070 before buying interest surges.

Support levels: 1.4165 1.4120 1.4070

Resistance levels: 1.4240 1.4290 1.4335

USD/JPY Current price: 112.78

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

Bouncing from fresh weekly lows. The USD/JPY pair plunged to 112.22 during the Asian session, as local share markets fell on risk aversion. The pair however has managed to bounce from its low, as the negative sentiment receded during the European morning, with equities markets recovering ground. Nevertheless, the underlying bearish trend persists, at least in the longer term, given that the pair has posted a lower low and a lower high daily basis. In the 1 hour chart, the 100 SMA is crossing below the 200 SMA above the current price while the technical indicators aim higher, crossing their mid-lines towards the upside as the pair recovered sharply over the last hour. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are aiming slightly higher below their mid-lines, but remain far from suggesting a stronger recovery. Should the price regain the 113.10 level, the rally can extend up to the 113.50 region, where it has been consolidating for most of these last few days.

Support levels: 112.50 112.15 111.60

Resistance levels: 113.10 113.50 114.00

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7469

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has set a fresh multi-month high of 0.7498 before retreating some, maintaining the overall bullish trend, and hovering around the roof of the daily ascendant trend line. Dollar's short term advance has no clear catalyst behind, but is quite limited and can be blamed on profit taking ahead of the upcoming risk event this Thursday. Technically, the 1 hour chart supports a downward corrective move, as the technical indicators are turning south from overbought levels, but the price is well above its 20 SMA, limiting the downside. In the 4 hours chart, the price remains well above a bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are losing upward strength well above their mid-lines, but far from suggesting a downward move.

Support levels: 0.7435 0.7400 0.7365

Resistance levels: 0.7490 0.7530 0.7585

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