Rupee directionless on iffs and butts over elections


Bunched up demand after a long holiday can result in temporary weakness for the rupee. There are lot of iffs and butts in the market regarding the stance of the Reserve bank of Indian on interest rates once a new government is formed. These grapewine will increase intraday volatility. Globally yesterday's US march retail sale numbers suggest further tapering by the Federal reserve in the meeting on 30th April and beyond. US interest rates could rise faster than markets expect as growth is firm. Spillover counter effects of increased trade sanctions with Russia will need to careful watched as far as eurozone growth is concerned. 

Friday is another holiday. Traders will now start to take positions for next Monday. 

Chart

Usd/inr April 2014:  It needs to fall below 60.3775 or break 60.6225 for direction. Overalll usd/inr will find sellers on rise as long as it does not break 60.80.

Euro/inr April 2014: Support is at 83.3450 with 83.98 as the key resistance. There will be another wave of selling only below 83.3450. Overall till April future close, we prefer a sell on rise strategy as long as euro/inr does not break 85.23. 

Gbp/Inr April 2014: It needs to trade over 100.89 to prevent a fall to 10.66 and 100.12. 

Jpy/Inr April 2014: Resistance is at 59.71 and there will be sellers on rise as long as jpy/inr does not break 59.71 with 59.21 as key support

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