Will the party continue?

After the beating that stocks took last week - Both Citibank and Retail Sales came to the rescue....Retail sales jumped 1.1% and was the BIGGEST gain in some 18 months - this was vs. the 0.9% expectation....sending a clear signal that the US economy is rebounding - after all of that bad weather....This is important because retail sales are joined at the hip with consumer spending - and consumer spending makes up 70% of our economy.

From an earnings perspective - Citibank reported an UPSIDE surprise.....The 3rd largest bank in the US 'blew the doors off the bus' and reported earnings of $1.30 vs. the street expectation of $1.14 - in addition they announced more job cuts and cost reductions - investors loved it and took the stock up 4.4%. Just to play devil's advocate - remember - you can always beat the estimate if you lower expectations enough....is that what Citi did?

In the end though - that's all the mkt needed - after being under pressure - just some good news...something for traders to sink their teeth into...and they got it.... The strong data does reflect an improving economy - and an improving economy does gain momentum - and this is consistent with what we have been talking about all along.....the 2H of the year should be strong and that will be the underpinning for further strength ahead for the mkt. A correction will allow prices to become a bit more reasonable while the fundamentals catch up. On the other hand -

Technically - we did not even challenge the S&P 50 DMA at 1844 - which now represents resistance. - Yes we had an up day - but not enough to really challenge the sellers. There was not the requisite conviction in yesterday's action....for a couple of reasons.... First it is a holiday week - both Passover and Good Friday/Easter Sunday - so many participants are away - leaving orders to buy stocks on a breakdown and sell stocks on a breakout.....thus unless there is a significant move outside of the range - many large asset managers will be doing very little. Second - investors/traders would rather be patient ....they want to see more earnings, they want to hear more from the CFO's and CEO's about the state of affairs. Remember - earnings have already happened - they are history - they are what they are - but the future holds the key....

Today we will get more big news on the earnings front - Coca Cola, JNJ, Yahoo, Northern Trust, Intel, CSX to name a few...and on the economic pages - look for the Empire Manf Survey - exp of 8, CPI (consumer price index) exp of 0.1%, ex food and energy also 0.1%.

The stock mkt remains in a short-term oversold position and is due for a bounce - a bounce that we saw yesterday and one that should challenge resistance at 1844. But from an intermediate-term perspective the stock market continues to look vulnerable and producing gains and building a foundation right here will be hard for the stocks. The new broader trading range is 1765/1844 - yet the shorter term support can be found at the 1815 level - a level that goes back to November 2013. We tested it both on Friday and yesterday.....they will test it again....before breaching it to the downside.

Headwinds remain - The FED continues down the path of withdrawal at the end of April so watch to see how investors/traders digest that - although not new - many are still expecting Janet to 'slow down'....a theory I do not subscribe to.

Ukraine - what's in store?

Developing events over the weekend suggest that a Ukrainian confrontation is becoming increasingly likely in the Eastern part of the country - occupiers of various government buildings have ignored the Monday government deadline to vacate. This has created a situation in which the Ukrainian government enforces its control or loses its control over much of the east. Any military action from Kiev runs the risk that Russia will intervene to “protect” Russian citizens.

The stage is setting up for an escalation of tempers - which appears to have been the Russian plan from the start. The occupiers of these government buildings are not amateurs - suggesting covert Russian involvement. EU foreign ministers met on Monday to consider tougher sanctions against Russia and a 3rd round of sanctions will most likely be met by retaliation from Vladimir in energy supplies. Now this may not break out into armed conflict but the longer it goes on the more unnerved the mkts could become.

And with oil prices hovering around $104/barrel and gas back in the mid $4/gal range - at least on the coasts - it is hard to see a real substantial sustained rally at the moment.

US futures are +3 at 1828...as the tone remains cautious....Janet Yellen speaking at an Atlanta conference this morning and again tomorrow in NY. Expect the waiting game to continue as traders react to the noise.... Any sense that the news is 'good' will cause a surge to resistance - will the sellers be lined up? I guess we are about to find out.

Grilled Lamb Chops w/Orange Butter

Orange/ Cilantro Butter - easy to make and very versatile on a number of meats. Now like any herb butter - this is simple to make....You will need - 1 stick of butter, fresh minced cilantro, ground coriander, orange zest, s&p.

You can make the butter ahead of time and put in the freezer so that it is ready to use and always have some for a later time. It never hurts to make them and have them available to you in a flash.....Remember - herbed butters are your creation - make what you like..try different combinations of herbs to arrive at a new favorite.

Let the butter rest on the counter for about 1 hr so that it softens. Do not melt the butter in the microwave or on the stove - you do not want to cook the butter - capisce?

In a bowl - add the butter, minced cilantro (like 3 tblsp), a dash of coriander and about 1 tsp of orange zest - mix well - now season with s&p...cover and refrigerate for about 20 mins. Now remove the mixture from the fridge and place in wax paper - now ever so gently - form into a log - wrap in saran wrap and put in the freezer so that it hardens up.
Preheat the grill -

Brush your chops with a bit of olive oil and then season with s&p. - a nice thick cut chop on the grill works well with this.

Now place the chops on the grill - careful not burn. Should be about 5 / 8 mins on each side depending on thickness - you want a nice pink center. Remove from the grill, cover and let rest for 3 mins or so. Now place on a warmed plate and top with a slice of the Orange/Cilantro butter. Serve this with a wild grain rice and a green veggie. Enjoy a nice Pinot Noir.

Buon Appetito.