The appetite for risk improved in FX on Tuesday during the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting. All foreign currencies ended higher after all but the pound ended little changed on Monday. The US stock markets made little progress, but gold, oil and silver advanced. 

The short-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is short on most foreign currencies.
Good luck!  

 

Overnight

  • US: The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 0.6% in November following a revised 0.6% increase in October. 
  • US: The consumer confidence index fell to 58.6 in January from an upwardly revised 66.7 in December. 

 

Today's economic calendar

  • Japan: Retail trade for December 

 

EUR – March

The LGR Model: Long since January 24        
 
The March euro climbed to a new 11-month high on Tuesday. The euro is trading in a medium-term bullish flag targeting the 1.4200 area. It is trading above the 21-day exponential moving. The euro bottomed at an over two-year low in July.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3520. Further resistance is at 1.3575 and 1.3605. 
Initial support is at 1.3415. Further support is at 1.3355 and 1.3290. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways        
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways

JPY – March

The LGR Model: Short since January 24             
 
The oversold March Japanese yen recovered further on Tuesday after making a small correction from a new near 2 1/2-year low on Monday. The yen is trading below the neckline of a long-term head–and-shoulders pattern and the target is the 1.0500 area. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen had peaked on September 13. 
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1085. Further resistance is at 1.1160 and 1.1250. 
A pivot low is at 1.0961. Further support is at 1.0795.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish   

 

GBP – March

The LGR Model: Short since January 14        

The March pound advanced in an inside range on Tuesday after falling to a new five-month low on Monday. It pierced the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June-January uptrend. The pound is approaching the bottom of a long-term (four-year) triangle in the 1.56 area; it is also aiming for the target of a double top in the 1.54 area. It is trading well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. The pound had marked a 17-month high on January 2 and bottomed on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
Initial resistance is at 1.5765. Further resistance is at 1.5828 and 1.5890. 
Immediate support is at 1.5670. Further support is at 1.5625.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways    
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CHF – March

The LGR Model: Short since January 14        

The March Swiss franc closed at a two-week high and above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc is trading in a medium-term symmetrical triangle. It had marked a seven-month high on December 20 and a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish but the LGR model is short.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0900. Further resistance is at 1.0986.   
Initial support is at 1.0795. Further support is at 1.0700, 1.0657 and 1.0535.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Bullish 
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways     
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish 
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

CAD – March

The LGR Model: Short since January 18        

The March Canadian dollar rallied on Tuesday after reaching a six-month low on both Friday and Monday. It is trading below the 50% mark of the June-September uptrend. The loonie had peaked at a 2 ½-month high on January 11. The Canadian dollar had marked a high for the uptrend on September 14 and a significant bottom on June 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
Immediate resistance is at .9985. Further resistance is at 1.0065.
Initial support is at .9870. Further support is at .9835 and .9735.

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways      
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways      
LONG-TERM: Sideways

 

AUD – March

The LGR Model: Long since January 2        

The March Australian dollar rallied on good economic data on Tuesday after recovering from a 3 1/2-week low on Monday. It is trading below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Aussie marked a new high for the uptrend on January 10.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0445. Further resistance is at 1.0510 and 1.0547.
Initial support is at 1.0378. Further support follows at 1.0347 and 1.0280. 

INDICATORS

Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish 
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish


OUTLOOK

NEAR-TERM: Sideways         
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways