AUDJPY: eyes on Australia's labour market data


Best analysis

It has been a quiet morning thus far in Asia, with most of the majors drifting broadly sideways. One of the quietest is AUDUSD as it awaits Australia’s labour market report for April. The labour market down under has been a bright spot recently in Australia’s depressed economy. The release of March’s jobs numbers last month completely changed the market’s attitude towards the labour market. All of sudden jobs were being added in all the right places and people were returning to the workforce. However, this could easily be undone in one month, especially given how prone Australia’s labour market numbers are to revision.

In April, the unemployment rate is expected to climb slightly to 6.2% from 6.1%, with the market only expecting 4.0K jobs to have been added over the month and no change in the participation rate (64.8%). It’s also important to look deeper into the employment numbers, specifically where the job gains/losses are coming from. Job creation in the full-time market is more encouraging than part-time employment, although gains in both would still be considered good.

March’s stellar employment report recap:

  • Australia’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.1% in March from a revised 6.2% in February, as the economy added 37.7K jobs last month, more than doubling market expectations, and employment growth in February was revised much higher (42K vs. 15.6K).
  • Not only did the economy add a substantial amount of jobs over the last two months, they largely considered of full-time employment which is more indicative of a healthy economy than persistent growth in part-time employment. 73.4K full-time jobs were added in February and March alone, with 31.5K being added in March and February’s figure was revised to 41.9K from 10.3K previously. Also, the labour force participation rate jumped to 64.8% in March from a revised 64.7% in February (the un-revised figure was 64.6%).

AUDJPY

AUDJPY is staring down the barrel of a potential bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, and a softer than expected jobs report today could be enough to confirm this pattern. There is already some indication that the pair topped out around 95.95 in the near-term – there’s persistent divergence between price and RSI on an hourly chart. If it does break through the aforementioned H&S pattern’s neck line we would turn our attention to 94.55 and then support around 94.00 (this is also the target for the H&S pattern).

Chart

Source: FOREX.com

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD flat lines above mid-0.6700s ahead of Australian jobs data

AUD/USD flat lines above mid-0.6700s ahead of Australian jobs data

AUD/USD attracts some dip-buyers on Thursday, around the 0.6820 region. Against the backdrop of the RBA's hawkish stance, the upbeat market mood acts as a tailwind for the pair. That said, persistent concerns over an economic slowdown in China, along with a modest USD uptick, cap the upside as traders await Australian employment figures.

AUD/USD News
USD.JPY jumps above 143.50, focus shifts to BoJ rate decision

USD.JPY jumps above 143.50, focus shifts to BoJ rate decision

The USD/JPY pair gains traction around 143.55 on Thursday during the early European session. The uptick of the major pair is bolstered by the recovery of the US Dollar. Investors will shift their attention to the Bank of Japan interest rate decision on Friday. 

USD/JPY News
Gold price stalls post-FOMC pullback from all-time peak; lacks firm intraday direction

Gold price stalls post-FOMC pullback from all-time peak; lacks firm intraday direction

Gold price oscillates in a range on Thursday and consolidates the previous day's post-FOMC rejection slide from the $2,600 mark or a fresh record high. Persistent geopolitical risks, along with signs of economic trouble in the US and China, lend support to the safe-haven metal.

Gold News
Ethereum attempts recovery following first rate cut in four years

Ethereum attempts recovery following first rate cut in four years

Ethereum is trading above $2,330 on Wednesday as the market is recovering following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Meanwhile, Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded $15.1 million in outflows.

Read more
Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

Australian Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.2% in August

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly employment report at 1:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 25K new positions in August, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to remain steady at 4.2%.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures