France, the INSEE is somewhat more optimistic


  • French growth is expected to accelerate slightly 
  • Consumption, will lead, business investment will be less depressed
The Insee’s economic outlook carries a note of cautious optimism. In the December 2014 issue of “Conjoncture in France”, the Insee calls for French growth to accelerate slightly in the first half of 2015. It is expected to reach an annualised growth rate of 1% under the combined impact of lower oil prices and a weaker euro. Private consumption will be the main channel as the decline in the energy bill paid by households (for petrol, heating fuel, etc.) boosts purchasing power. Corporate investment is also supposed to pick up. Although currency depreciation raises the cost of intermediate goods, the impact is more than offset by the drop-off in commodity prices. Moreover, for many export companies, the euro’s decline eases the pressure on sales prices and thus on margins. Historically very low in France, the latest will get a lift in early 2015 from the ramping up of the CICE tax credit and reductions in employer’s contribution. Investment should follow… provided that demand prospects improve.

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