Commodity currencies close the week lower despite USD weakness

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar moved lower Friday as the commodity driven currency continued to relinquish gains moving back below 0.78. In the absence of any headline data sets the AUD was at the mercy of offshore stimuli and failed to capitalise on general Greenback weakness following a softer than anticipated GDP print and a flat address from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Profit taking took hold and the Aussie sell off continued for a 2nd consecutive day. Focus now shifts to a relatively busy economic docket headlined by domestic Building Approval and Trade Balance with offshore direction coming from Chinese Manufacturing data. Having touched intraday lows of 0.7756 Friday the AUD opens this morning buying just 0.7744 US cents.

• We expect a range today of 0.7620 - 0.7850

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar, much like its Australian counterpart, failed to take advantage of general Greenback weakness Friday closing the week at 0.7569. The local docket offered minimal guidance and the Kiwi was left to offshore vices for direction through Friday as profit taking continued and the NZD edged lower for a second consecutive day. Attentions turn to ANZ business confidence and a GDT index report for direction into the week ahead.

• We expect a range today of 0.7450 - 0.7650

Great British Pound:

Sterling rallied Friday having found support at 1.48 as general USD weakness meant a short term Greenback selloff. Comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney did little to sway investors and the Great British Pound took advantage of a softer than anticipated US GDP report while rhetoric from Fed Chair  Janet Yellen failed to inspire. Gains were capped as investors squared positions and backed USD longs with expectations the Fed will move at some point into the end of the year. Attentions now turn to the Current Account Balance Tuesday, Manufacturing PMI Wednesday and Construction PMI Thursday as the directional drivers into the Easter long weekend.

• We expect a range today of 1.8990 - 1.9430 

Majors:

The US Dollar moved lower into the close on Friday as investors reacted to comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and began squaring positions ahead of this week’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Yellen hit the wires at the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Conference in San Francisco suggesting the Central Bank had given “serious consideration” to raising rates and reducing accommodative monetary policy. The comments while somewhat hawkish where very much in line with the March 18 FOMC policy statement and did little to evoke any new Greenback rallies simply reiterating the Fed’s dependence on strengthening macroeconomic indicators. The Greenback did find support as Long USD bets rallied while net euro shorts jumped to record highs. The Euro did enjoyed a short term relief rally Friday buoyed by general Greenback weakness and QE optimism. Continued improvement in macro data sets has fuelled investor confidence and added credence to the ECB’s QE program helping the 19 nation unit hold onto levels above 1.08. Attentions now turn to Prelim German CPI for direction through Monday as investors prepare for Eurozone CPI Tuesday ahead of another critical U.S employment change report Friday.

Data releases

• AUD: No Data
• NZD: No Data
• JPY: Prelim Industrial Production m/m
• GBP: Net Lending to Individuals m/m, M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals
• EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y and Italian 10 year Bond Auction   
• USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending, Personal Income and Pending Home Sales