EUR/USD Current price: 1.0911
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A quiet beginning of the week saw the EUR/USD pair advancing up to 1.0938, its highest ever since the FED's 25bp rate hike, last Wednesday. If something, a strong bounce in gold prices was behind the rally, exacerbated by thin holiday volumes. The macroeconomic calendar offered no trading clues, as during the European morning, Germany PPI for November resulted as expected. Investors will be now looking for the outcome of the final revision of the US Q3 GDP reading to be released this Tuesday, expected to remain unchanged from its previous revision at 2.1%.
The pair has recovered some of its former shine, as the intraday technical picture is mild bullish ahead of the Asian opening, according to the 4 hours chart, where the price has recovered above its moving averages, while the technical indicators are back above their mid-lines, but lacking upward momentum. Also, the pair has recovered above the 1.0880 level, the 38.2% retracement of its latest monthly decline, now the immediate support. Nevertheless, the pair is expected to remain confined to a limited intraday range during the upcoming days, with some short lived spikes in between, with no apparent catalyst behind them.
Support levels: 1.0880 1.0840 1.0790
Resistance levels: 1.0915 1.0950 1.1000
EUR/JPY Current price: 132.19
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The EUR/JPY closed the day with some gains above the 132.00 level, helped by a rising intraday demand for the common currency. The pair however, is far from erasing Friday's losses triggered by the Bank of Japan's decision of change its stimulus program. The daily advance has been enough to turn the pair bullish in the short term, as in the 1 hour chart, the price has been steadily printing higher highs and higher lows, whilst the technical indicators have recovered above their mid-lines, with the RSI indicator heading higher above the 60 level. In the 4 hours chart, however, the technical indicators have stalled their recoveries below their mid-lines, suggesting the recent recovery is not yet enough to confirm a bullish continuation during the upcoming days.
Support levels: 131.95 131.50 131.00
Resistance levels: 132.40 132.80 133.30
GBP/USD Current price: 1.4885
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The GBPUSD pair has made little progress this Monday, holding near the 8-month low set last week at 1.4863, and closing the day a handful of pips below the 1.4900 figure, with the Pound being weighed by the remarks from BOE´s Martin Weale, highlighting that “the factors pushing down inflation have become a bit more prolonged,” which means that a rate hike is for now, out of sight. Technically speaking the 4 hours chart shows that the price has been capped by a bearish 20 SMA in an early attempt to advance, while the Momentum indicator diverges from price action, having recovered up to its mid-line. The RSI indicator however, maintains a bearish slope near 36, supporting further declines particularly on a break below 1.4860, the mentioned low and the immediate support. Such break should open doors for a continued decline towards the 1.4750 region, the next strong mid-term static support area.
Support levels: 1.4860 1.4815 1.4770
Resistance levels: 1.4920 1.4950 1.4995
USD/JPY Current price: 121.16
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The Japanese yen has strengthened against its American rival, with the USD/JPY extending its decline down to 120.83 in the American afternoon on the back of stocks decline. Ending the day barely in the red, the pair remains stuck around its 100 DMA, while the overall bearish tone triggered by the BOJ prevails, as the daily indicators maintain their bearish slopes below their mid-lines. In the shorter term, he 1 hour chart favors a continued decline, given that the price is below its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators head slightly lower below their mid-lines, with no actual momentum. In the 4 hours chart, however, the bearish trend is clearer, as the price has extended further below its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes within negative territory. Renewed selling interest below 120.70 can see the pair extending its decline down to 120.35, a strong static support level where buying interest is expected to surge.
Support levels: 121.05 120.70 120.35
Resistance levels: 121.70 122.20 122.66
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7183
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The AUD/USD pair has managed to advance some in thin trading, having however, been unable to regain the 0.7200 level. The Aussie got some support by a recovery in base metals' prices, but the poor performance of the antipodean currency suggests the latest bullish tone may be close to its end. From a technical point of view, the big picture is bearish, as in the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators head lower below their mid-lines as the price holds below its 20 SMA that lacks directional strength. In the shorter term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price has managed to advance above its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators hold above their mid-lines, showing no actual directional strength. In the 4 hours chart, the price is above a bearish 20 SMA and below the 200 EMA, while the Momentum indicator heads sharply higher above its 100 level, rather reflecting the intraday advance than suggesting further gains. At this point, the pair needs to advance beyond the 0.7240 level to confirm a more sustainable rally during the upcoming sessions.
Support levels: 0.7150 0.7120 0.7070
Resistance levels: 0.7200 0.7240 0.7280
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