Ivan Delgado
Independent Analyst
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3650
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Underlying uptrend continues remarkably steady, with buying interest firm on every dip. Worth noting is that since the technical breakout out of its daily 1.3260-1.34 range, the rally has evolved from non-volatile to increasingly show more volatile action - courtesy of Friday's NFP -, which gives us early indication of more sellers showing up to challenge further highs before a meaningful correction takes place. From a short term view, last Friday's 6 hours correction before NY close is now anchored by ascending 20-H1 EMA +50 - 61.8% fib retrac. from NFP rally. In order for bears to s/t take control, 1.3630 should be taken out, potentially leading to 1.3585, where plenty of buyers were parked after the initial USD spike post NFP. A break into new highs, on the contrary, implies further upside resolution to 1.38 next goal for buyers.
EUR/JPY Current price: 126.50
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Last week, we discussed that early evidence of parabolic moves in EUR/JPY were starting to emerge, a dangerous sign if one is to reinstate longs blindly, just purely based on the strong upward momentum. On the upside, a break above 127.00 implies a next logical target of 128.00 - March 2010 high - while on the downside, breaking through ascending 20-h1 EMA at round 126.00 is pre-requisite to accelerate possible corrective slide to 125.00.
USD/JPY Current price: 92.80
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The powerful bullish bias remains intact, with price showing no clues of any potential retracement as 93.00 looms. A break higher exposes next technical resistance at 93.70 - Jan 2010 high - while a correction should encounter dip buyers around contention area 92.20-40, confluence between last swing high and a 45º 20-h1 EMA.
AUD/USD: Current price: 1.0418
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The AUD/USD is trapped in a 100 pips intraday range between 1.0380 and 1.0480. Price remains heavy with the sellers holding the upper hand as a pre-breakout scenario to the downside is on the making. From an hourly chart, lower lows and lower highs are printed, suggesting squeeze of longs remains in place despite Friday's false break down. Potential target for bears is 1.0350, while only a penetration of 1.0450 may ease buyers pressure, which would be further confirmed if 1.0480-1.05 contention area is regained.
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