FX market still in cross-trading mode: AUD/CHF falls by 2%


One would think that the FOMC decision and statement, when put together on the same day as US jobs and GDP data, would ensure that we had a day of volatility in the USD. This was not the case, with all of the big moves happening again in the crosses. Pairs like AUD/CHF stole the limelight, falling by almost 2% in the last 24 hours. All of these moves are being caused by major flows from both real-money and speculative players.

The AUD/USD was capped yesterday by very solid and regular offers from 2 big hedge funds. I’m still not sure if this is part of a straight AUD/USD play or perhaps it’s part of a cross play (which looks to be the more likely explanation after the overnight moves). Asset managers are still expected to buy any deep AUD/USD dips but sentiment is slowly turning bearish. The market has now all but discounted a rate cut next week.

EUR/USD broke above the well-protected 1.3500 level and has consolidated those gains. The weekly chart has broken above all the big MAs and gains towards 1.4000 now look feasible (see chart).

USD/CHF moved sharply lower in what looks like stop-loss selling. The market may well have gotten itself short of CHF at the wrong levels and hence the adjustment. The short-term charts suggest that we may see an extended .9080/.9380 range (see chart) and I still like the bullish bias here as asset managers exit long-term Swiss strategies.

USD/JPY broke above another milestone at .9100 and consolidated those gains as the Yen continued to lose ground on the crosses. There is little in the way of major resistance now until a major high at 94.90.

EUR/JPY is consolidating above major technical resistance at 123.10/20 and this is yet another very bullish sign. The next technical resistance of note is a weekly high at 128.00.

The GBP was relatively quiet, making modest gains against the USD and losing slightly on the EUR. There is decent technical resistance on the day at 1.5865 (see chart).

Good luck today.
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