MONTHLY WEBINAR - Part II: 2014 Market Outlook

AUD/USD is seen consolidating its recent strong gains to the highest level since September 18, reached on Friday, as traders move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key central bank event risks. The RBA is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Tuesday, followed by the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. In the meantime, the RBA's hawkish tilt acts as a tailwind for the Aussie, while rising bets on a Fed rate cut undermine the US Dollar and support the currency pair.

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 155.25 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar weakens against the Japanese Yen as traders brace for the Federal Reserve meeting this week, where policymakers are widely expected to cut interest rates. 

After rising more than 3.5% in the previous week, Gold has entered a consolidation phase and fluctuated at around $4,200. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and revised Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the dot plot, could trigger the next directional move in XAU/USD. 

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low. Dollar weakness could linger; both the aussie and the yen best positioned to gain further. Gold and oil eye Ukraine-Russia developments; a peace deal remains elusive.

Silver just hit a new all-time high. Neither did gold, nor mining stocks. They all reversed on an intraday basis, but silver’s move to new highs makes it still bullish overall, while the almost complete reversals in gold and miners make the latter technically bearish.

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.