Matt Simpson, CFTe, MSTA
CityIndex
A snapshot view of last week's money flow and technical notes for the week ahead.
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
FOMC Staff projects and FED press conference will gain a lot of interest as traders try to decipher forward guidance and timing of interest rate rises. With the USD gaining traction as the markets price in an earlier rate rise then the FED will need to deliver stringer clues to avoid any long-covering.
Scotland will vote for independence with a 'Yes' expected to bring further downside for Sterling, or rapid short-covering if they vote 'no' (a more likely outcome).
AUD: New Motor Vehicle Sales; RBA Policy Meeting minutes
CAD: Manufacturing Sales; Core CPI; Wholesale Sales
CHF: Trade Balance; Libor rate; SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
EUR: GER Zew Economic; Final CPI;
GBP: CPI; MPC Votes; Retail Sales; Scottish Independence
JPY: Kuroda Speaks; Trade Balance
NZD: GDP q/q
USD: PPI; Core CPI; FOMC Projections' Fed Funds Rate and press conference;
FOREX:
DXY Bullish; Targeting 84.70 above 83.8
AUDUSD Most bearish W1 close since July 2013; Targeting 0.85 (H&S reversal)
EURUSD Bullish Pinbar warns of weakness to the bearish move
GBPUSD Recouped previous weeks losses but failed to close the 150 pip gap down
USDCAD W1 Morning Star Reversal in line with bullish trend warns of trend continuation
USDCHF W1 Shooting Star warns of weakness to bullish move
USDJPY Most bullish W1 close since June '13 and targeting 110
NZDUSD Targeting 0.80 but found interim support at 200wk MA
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.