GBP/USD - Moving below the key support at 1.6220

EUR/USD

Weak bounce thus far.

• EUR/USD remains weak as can be seen by Friday's weak bounce. Monitor the recent low at 1.2920. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 1.3000 (psychological threshold) and 1.3110 (02/09/2014 high).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The break of the key support at 1.3105 (06/09/2013 low) opens the way for a decline towards the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3297 (22/08/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Moving below the key support at 1.6220.

• GBP/USD continues its relentless decline, as can be seen by the move below the key support at 1.6220. Another support stands at 1.6000 (psychological threshold and 50% retracement). Hourly resistances can now be found at 1.6233 (intraday high) and 1.6340 (05/09/2014 high).

• In the longer term, prices have collapsed after having reached 4-year highs. The breach of the key support at 1.6220 confirms persistent selling pressures and opens the way for further decline towards the strong support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low). A key resistance now stands at 1.6644.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Monitor the support at 104.74.

• USD/JPY has thus far failed to decisively break the strong resistance at 105.44 (see also the 61.8% retracement and the long-term declining trendline). However, prices remain in a shortterm uptrend as long as the support at 104.74 (see also the steep rising trendline) holds. A key support area stands between 103.56 (28/08/2014 low) and 103.50 (22/08/2014 low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The break to the upside out of the consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 favours a resumption of the underlying bullish trend. Strong resistances can be found at 105.44 (02/01/2014 high) and 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Consolidating after its sharp rise.

• USD/CHF has broken the strong resistance at 0.9250. Hourly supports can now be found at 0.9287 (05/09/2014 low) and 0.9250 (previous resistance). An initial resistance lies at 0.9336 (05/09/2014 high). Another resistance stands at 0.9404 (61.8% retracement).

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure calls for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The break of the strong resistance at 0.9250 (07/11/2013 high) opens the way for a move towards the next strong resistance at 0.9456 (06/09/2013 high). A key support now lies at 0.9104 (22/08/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Buying interest visible near 1.0809.

• USD/CAD is moving within a horizontal range defined by the key support area between 1.0809 (50% retracement) and 1.0797 and the key resistance at 1.0998. The recent large daily lower shadows confirm a strong buying interest near the low of this range. An hourly resistance lies at 1.0943.

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Grinding higher.

• AUD/USD is grinding higher. The resistance at 0.9374 has been breached. The short-term technical structure is positive as long as the hourly support at 0.9330 (04/09/2014 low) holds. Another support can be found at 0.9263. Hourly resistances stand at 0.9402 (05/09/2014 high) and 0.9416.

• In the longer term, prices are expected to continue moving sideways within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 (see also the 200 day moving average) and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

The 200-day moving average has been broken.

• GBP/JPY has broken the support implied by its 200-day moving average (see also the rising trendline). Monitor the test of the strong support at 169.51. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 170.67 (intraday high) and 171.65 (intraday high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). However, a decisive break of the strong support at 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) would invalidate this scenario. Another key support can be found at 167.78 (18/03/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Challenging the strong support at 136.23.

• EUR/JPY is challenging the strong support area between 136.23 and 135.73 (08/08/2014 low). A break of the hourly resistance at 136.61 (05/09/2014 high) is needed to signal weakening short-term selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 138.03.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. However, monitor the new test of the key support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low). A strong resistance lies at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Approaching its key resistance at 0.8034.

• EUR/GBP is consolidating between the support at 0.7874 and the key resistance at 0.8034. The long-term declining channel continues to favour a bearish bias. Hourly supports now lie at 0.7979 (intraday low) and 0.7957 (05/09/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Remains weak.

• EUR/CHF is trying to stabilise near its recent low at 1.2049 (28/08/2014 low). However, a break of the hourly resistance at 1.2093 (26/08/2014 high) is needed to suggest exhaustion in shortterm selling pressures. Another resistance stands at 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Bouncing near the low of its declining channel.

• Gold has bounced near the hourly support at 1258 (17/06/2014 low). Hourly resistances can be found at 1278 (04/09/2014 high, see also the declining trendline) and 1297 (28/08/2014 high). Another support stands at 1240.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured. The recent break to the downside out of the symmetrical triangle confirms this scenario.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Bouncing within its underlying downtrend.

• Silver has broken the key support at 19.32, confirming a persistent underlying downtrend. An hourly support lies at 19.00, while a key support stands at 18.64. Hourly resistances for a short-term bounce can be found at 19.37 (04/09/2014 high) and 19.64 (29/08/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. A test of the strong support area between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) is expected. A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.