USDCHF: Monitor the declining channel.

EUR/USD

Pickup in selling pressures.

• EUR/USD declined sharply yesterday, completely erasing Wednesday's gains. A further decline towards the support at 1.3503 is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3664 (03/07/2014 high). An hourly support stands at 1.3576.

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. A long-term downside risk at 1.3379 (implied by the double-top formation) is favoured as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.3775. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Consolidating.

• GBP/USD is consolidating near the top of its rising channel. The mild price correction thus far suggests persistent buying interest. Monitor the hourly support at 1.7086 and the hourly resistance at 1.7180 (04/07/2014 high). Another support can be found at 1.7007 (27/06/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A support lies at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.7190, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7328, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.7138.

USD/JPY

Pushing lower.

• USD/JPY has broken the support at 101.24, confirming a short-term weak technical structure. However, a key support stands at 100.76. Hourly resistances can now be found at 101.45 (09/07/2014 low) and 101.86 (09/07/2014 high).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Monitor the declining channel.

• USD/CHF continues to move within its declining channel. An hourly support lies at 0.8886 (intraday low). Hourly resistances are given by the declining channel (around 0.8948) and 0.8975. Another support stands at 0.8857.

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Approaching its recent lows.

• USD/CAD remains weak despite the proximity of the key support implied by its long-term rising trendline. The inability to break the hourly resistance at 1.0697 confirms persistent selling pressures. Monitor the test of the support at 1.0621. Another key support lies at 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0656) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Bearish reversal pattern underway?

• AUD/USD is showing signs of weakness after having retraced part of its recent decline. A second leg lower (echoing the first one from the peak at 0.9505) is likely underway. Furthermore, the technical configuration since June looks like a bearish head and shoulders. A key support stands at 0.9319. An hourly resistance lies at 0.9457.

• In the longer term, the false breakout at 0.9461 confirms a limited upside potential, favouring a bearish bias. However, a break of the key support at 0.9206 (03/04/2014 low) is needed to open the way for a new significant phase of decline.

Sell stop 2 units at 0.9309, Obj: Close 1 unit at 0.9212, remaining at 0.9007, Stop: 0.9348.

GBP/JPY

The rising channel has been breached.

• GBP/JPY has moved out of its rising channel, opening the way for a test of the support at 172.38. Hourly resistances can now be found at 173.73 (08/07/2014 low) and 174.57 (08/07/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Making new lows.

• EUR/JPY has confirmed its weak technical structure by breaking its short-term rising channel and moving below the support at 137.71. Hourly resistances can now be found at 138.12 (08/07/2014 low) and 138.83 (07/07/2014 high). A key support stands at 136.23.

• Prices need to break the resistance implied by the 200 day moving average (around 139.36) to indicate exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressure.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong support can already be found at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Fading near the resistance at 0.7973.

• EUR/GBP has thus far failed to break the resistance at 0.7973 (03/07/2014 high), confirming a weak buying interest. Furthermore, a break of the hourly resistance at 0.8034 is needed to invalidate the bearish technical structure. An hourly support lies at 0.7915 (07/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8153 (29/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Declining towards its recent lows.

• EUR/CHF has failed to break the hourly resistance at 1.2166. Prices are now approaching the support at 1.2134. Another support lies at 1.2122. As long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.2178 (20/06/2014 high), the technical structure continues to favour further weakness towards 1.2104.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Bullish breakout at 1331.

• Gold has broken the resistance at 1331, confirming persistent buying interest. Resistances are now given by the declining trendline (around 1368) and 1392. Hourly supports can be found at 1327 (intraday low) and 1312 (07/07/2014 low).

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Bullish breakout at 21.29.

• Silver has broken the resistance at 21.29. Resistances now stand at 21.79 and 22.18. Hourly supports can be found at 21.24 (04/07/2014 high) and 20.83 (07/07/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.