Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/NZD 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: We have observed almost a one-month long slide of AUD/NZD that took the instrument from a seven-month high of 1.1037 to a six-week low of 1.0721. Despite a generally bearish tendency that is an integral feature of channel down patterns, market players believe the sell-off was excessive—more than two-thirds of traders hold long positions in the pair—and the pair now is capable to pare losses it faced while being locked inside a 276-bar long downward sloping tunnel. Meanwhile, technical data belies traders’ view, sending a clear ‘sell’ signal for short-, medium– and longterm.
CHF/JPY 1H Chart: Ascending Triangle
Comment: The upper boundary of an ascending triangle pattern was blocking numerous upswings of CHF/JPY during circa 133 hours. Being unable to surpass this formidable resistance at 114.25, the currency couple chose another way out of the formation – it dived under the lower limit of the triangle and now it trading slightly below the 50-hour SMA at 114.04.
Although the breakout has happened, we see a moderate bullishness on the SWFX – almost 58% of all orders are placed to buy the pair, suggesting that the likelihood of an accelerating depreciation that usually follows a bearish exit is not so high.
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Triangle
Comment: The U.S. Dollar has been losing ground against its South African peer since mid-June when it attained a three-month high of 10.8674. While retreating, USD/ZAR shaped a 92-bar long triangle pattern, the apex of which will be reached later in the day, meaning that the breakout is looming. Meanwhile, traders on the SWFX fail to express a clear opinion about the direction of the exit – the proportion of long positions only slightly outweighs the proportion of the short ones – 56% of orders are long and 44% are short. Technical indicators also send mostly neutral signals.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: A sharp appreciation of the U.S. Dollar versus the Norwegian Krone pushed the pair into a bullish channel that helped USD/NOK to hit a four-month high of 6.1639 on Jun 20. However, a toilsome escalation to this peak enfeebled the pair that was unable to sustain its rally anymore and dived below the lower limit of the formation.
Now the pair still is sitting beneath the channel’s lower trend-line and considering that more than 74% of traders on the SWFX are bearish, we may expect the recent breakout to be real and lead to a massive sell-off of the pair.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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