Technical Summary for Commodities


Gold spot is close to fully retrace recovery rally from 1625, 04 Jan low to 1697, 17 Jan high. Break below triangular consolidation and loss of near-term range floor / 200 day MA at 1660 zone, signaled fresh direction and accelerated losses through 1651, 28 Jan low, towards 1635, 20/21 Dec lows and key support at 1625, after clearing the last hurdle at 1642, Fib 76.4% of 1625/1697 upleg. Near-term studies are negative and show no reversal signals for now, despite oversold conditions that sees room for final push towards 1625. Previous strong support at 1650, now offers initial resistance, with 1663, 200 day MA and former range floor, expected to cap rallies.

Res: 1651, 1657, 1663, 1666
Sup: 1639, 1365, 1625, 1600



Silver spot is poised for extension towards psychological 30.00 support, as bears took control after downside break of two-week triangle and main bull trendline off 29.21, 2013 low. Acceleration, triggered below near-term range floor at 31.30, surged through 31.00, broke 30.72, 28 Jan low, near 50% of 29.21/32.46 ascend and cracked 200 day MA at 30.62. Negative near-term structure is boosted by daily indicators sliding below the midlines and keeps the downside targets at 33.45, Fib 61.8% and 30.00, Fib 76.4%, in focus. Corrective bounce on oversold near-term technicals, face initial barrier at 31.00, with previous base at 31.30, expected to limit the upside.

Res: 31.00, 31.30, 31.40, 31.67
Sup: 30.57, 30.45, 30.14, 30.00



Double-bottom formation is under way on a 4h chart, as oil price’s rally from 95.00 base eventually broke above strong barrier and near-term congestion top at 97.00 that also marks Fib 61.8% of 98.22/95.00 corrective pullback. Sustained break and close above 97.00 is required to confirm bulls back in play, as completion of double-bottom reversal pattern, would re-focus key barriers at 98.22, 30 Jan peak and 98.54, Fib 61.8% expansion of rally from 84.05, 07 Nov 2012 low. Interim barriers lie at 97.45, Fib 76.4% of 98.22/95.00 and psychological 98.00 level. Previous barrier at 97.00 now reverts to initial support, ahead of 96.65/55, loss of which would sideline near-term bears.

Res: 97.45, 98.00, 98.22, 98.54
Sup: 97.00, 96.65, 96.55, 96.00


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