GBP/USD: Sharp decline thru key support

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EUR/USD

Weak bounce.

• EUR/USD has bounced close to the support implied by the recent low (around 1.0836). Hourly supports can now be found at 1.0836 then 1.0812 (21/07/2015). Hourly resistances stand at 1.0888 (intraday high) and 1.0968 (04/11/2015).

• In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deteriorations favours a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low).

GBP/USD

Sharp decline thru key support.

• GBP/USD has broken the support at 0.9007, invalidating the recent short-term uptrend and suggesting a deeper corrective phase. Next supports can now be found at 1.5140 (06/10/2015 low) and 1.5110 (30/09/2015 low). Hourly resistances stand at 1.5219 (intraday high).

• The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards the key support at 1.5089 , as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.

USD/JPY

Pushing higher.

• USD/JPY continues to improve. Hourly resistances now stand at 121.98 (intraday high) The short-term technical structure favours a further rise as long as the hourly support at 121.65/70 region holds. Another support lies at 121.40 (05/11/2015low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favored as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) is favored. A key support can be found at 116.18 (24/08/2015 low).

USD/CHF

Bullish breakout at 0.9957.

• USD/CHF has broken the resistance at 0.9957 (28/10/2015 range high and long term decliing trendline), confirming an increasing buying interest. As long as the support at 0.9808 (27/10/2015 low) holds, the technical structure looks to further bullish momentum. Additional hourly support is given at 0.9476 (15/10/2015 low). Resistance is located at 1.000 key psychological level.

• In the long-term, the pair has broken resistance at 0.9448 and key resistance at 0.9957 suggesting further uptrend. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). As long as these levels hold, a long term bullish bias is favoured.

USD/CAD

Moving sideways.

• USD/CAD recovery bounce has thus far failed to break the resistance at 1.3195 (304/11/2015), suggesting persistent selling pressures. Resistances can be found at 1.3280 (28/10/2015 high). Significant supports stand at 1.2949 (Fibo 38% retracement level).

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Support can be found at 1.2832 (15/10/2015 low) then 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

AUD/USD

Sideways pause.

• AUD/USD bullish momentum has improved but prices have thus far failed to decisively break their declining trendline at 0.7220. An hourly support can be found at 0.7120 (03/11/2015 low). As the pair has broken hourly support at 0.7165 (08/10/2015 low) underlying downside trend is dominate.

• In the long-term, there is no sign to suggest the end of the current downtrend. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair remains well below the 200-dma which confirms selling pressures.

GBP/JPY

Collapse.

• GBP/JPY has corrected sharply lower, running into rising trendline at 185.10. Break of key support would suggest a deeper corrective phase. Support stands at 183.90 (28/10/2015 low. An initial resistance can now be found at 185.27 (intraday high).

• In the long-term, the lack of any medium-term bearish reversal pattern favours a bullish bias. The successful test of the strong support at 175.51 (03/02/2015 low) signals persistent buying interest. Key resistances stand at 197.45 (26/09/2008 high). A major support area can be found between 169.51 (11/04/2014 low) and 167.78 (18/03/2014 low).

EUR/JPY

Grinding higher under declining trendline.

• EUR/JPY is moving sideways under declining trendline. Hourly resistance is located at 132.65 (declining trendline) and hourly support lies at 132.24 (09/04/2015 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the support at 130.15 validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Key supports stand at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low) and 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

EUR/GBP

Reversal?

• EUR/GBP has broken the resistance at 0.7168 (23/10/2015 low), opening the way for further strength. However, short-term succession of lower lows indicates the technical structure is negative. Monitor the support at 0.7108 (02/11/2015 low). Resistance can be found at 0.7195 (30/10/2015 high). Structural pattern indicates continued weakness.

• In the long-term, prices are in an underlying declining trend. The general oversold conditions suggest a limited medium-term downside potential. A key resistance lies at 0.7592 (03/02/2015 high).

EUR/CHF

Minor bullish bounce.

• EUR/CHF is moving sideways off support, though a bearish bias is favoured given the recent lower highs. Hourly support lies at 1.0827 (intrday low) and 1.0733 (16/10/2015 low). Resistance can be found at 1.0908 (declining channel resistance). Expected to fall below 1.0800.

• In the longer term, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.1002 (02/09/2011 low). The ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

GOLD

Weak bounce.

• Gold has broken the key support at 1115 (03/11/2015low). and the short-term technical structure is negative. Short-term supports region can be found at 1104. Another support can be located at and 1093 (12/08/2015 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1115 (old resistance). Expected to show continued weakness.

• In the long-term, the underlying downtrend (see declining channel) continues to favour a bearish bias. Although the key support at 1132 (07/11/2014 low) has been broken, a break of the resistance at 1223 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary rebound. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD)

Weak bounce.

• Silver has remained weak after its failure to make a daily close below the support at 14.94. The potential medium-term base formation and the short-term challenge to range support favours a bearish bias. Another support is given at a distant 14.79 (uptrend channel). The resistance at 15.45 (declining channel) has thus far held.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. The strong support at 14.66 (05/02/2010 low) has been broken and prices have then consolidated. A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

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