Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
NZD/USD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: NZD/USD has been in a distinct up-trend since the mid-November, when it turned around after hitting 0.6430. The downside risks, however, have greatly increased recently. The currency pair is approaching a critical resistance level at the moment, namely the October high at 0.69. Above it the Kiwi should aim for the upper boundary of the channel at 0.70, followed by the June high at 0.7230. Alternatively, a failure here would imply a sell-off to the lower boundary of the pattern at 0.68, before there is another attempt to break higher. In the meantime, we should note that the New Zealand is far from being overbought in the SWFX market—60% of open positions are short.
AUD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: Although AUD/CAD has been struggling with resistance at 1.0110 lately, the risks are considered to be heavily skewed to the upside. The currency pair is trading within a well-defined channel, and most of the technical indicators are currently pointing north. At the same time, there is still room for more bulls to join the trend, being that only 34% of open positions are long. The present target is the September high at 1.0250. However, the outlook will be changed if the price dips through the support up-trend at 1.0050. In this case the exchange rate will be expected to descend down to 0.9840, namely the Dec 15 low, while extra demand is at 0.9780, represented by the 200-period SMA.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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