Lukman Otunuga
ForexTime (FXTM)
Global Markets
The Sterling spiked to downside across the global currency markets as a result of UK GDP printing below expectations at 0.5%. This currency has suffered for an extended period of time as a result of a riskoff environment mixed with escalating fears of a slowdown in economic momentum in the UK economy. It seems that BoE Mark Carney’s statement suggesting the possibility, rather than the certainty of a UK rate hike has pushed back expectations deep into 2016. Economic data in October from the UK has lost its robust touch and with this GDP figure failing to meet expectations today, the Sterling has been left vulnerable. The GBPUSD which had four consecutive days of decline last week remains under pressure, a breakdown below the 1.5300 support on this pair may open a path to the next relevant support at 1.5200.
The Dollar Index encountered an aggressive appreciation last week as a result of the ECB hinting of further QE in the future. Despite the index surging to 10week highs, Dollar vulnerability still remains the main theme in the global currency markets. This upside momentum within the USD may be shortlived as with only a slim chance that the US rates will be hiked in the FOMC statement this week, this single currency will be left vulnerable which should result in the bears taking control once again. Sentiment remains bearish for the Dollar and the creeping fears of a potential slowdown in economic momentum in the States combined with the mounting concerns that the GDP growth in the US for Q3 has shrunk, add to the already diminishing expectations of a US rate hike in 2015.
Even though Gold has experienced a technical decline which started from the second week of October, it still remains fundamentally bullish. Whilst the sharp appreciation of the USD played a part in capping any upwards momentum in this precious metal, the renewed fears about the decelerating growth in China should provide a foundation for the Gold bulls to take center stage once more. The FOMC statement this week, which most are expecting to conclude with no action being taken by the Fed to hike US rates, may inspire upwards momentum within this yellow metal, resulting in prices trading back above the 1170.00 resistance.
EURCHF
The EURCHF is technically bearish on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA and the MACD has crossed to the downside. As long as the 1.0900 resistance holds, there may be a decline to the next relevant support at 1.0700.
EURJPY
The EURJPY is technically bearish on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA and the MACD has crossed to the downside. A breakdown below the 133.00 support may open a path to the next relevant support at 131.00.
CADJPY
The CADJPY becomes technically bearish once a breach below the 91.00 support is achieved. Prices are currently trading below the daily 20 SMA and the MACD is in the process of crossing to the downside. The next relevant support is based at 89.00.
AUDCAD
The AUDCAD is technically bullish on the daily timeframe. A break above the 0.9580 resistance may open a path to the next relevant resistance based at 0.9650. Technical indicators such as the 20 SMA and MACD point to the upside.
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