Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
Near-term focus turned lower and eyes strong support zone between 1.1325 (n/t congestion floor) and 1.1300 (psychological support / 4-hr Ichimoku cloud base), which is reinforced by daily 20SMA (1.1309).
Another long-legged daily candle was left yesterday, after repeated upside rejection, signaling further directionless mode, but overall bulls have been dented.
Daily 10 SMA and Tenkan-sen were taken out and now offer initial resistances at 1.1382/94, as near-term technicals turned into bearish mode on today’s fresh downside acceleration.
Rising downside risk is seen after multiple upside rejections, which would trigger fresh bears on sustained break below 1.1325/00 support zone.
All eyes are on economic indicators, which may signal fresh direction for the pair. EU Industrial Production shows negative forecast for Feb release, while US Retail Sales are key release of American session and show positive forecasts.
Res: 1.1382; 1.1394; 1.1416; 1.1465
Sup: 1.1325; 1.1300; 1.1270; 1.1217
GBPUSD
Cable holds neutral near-term mode, following yesterday’s upside rejection at 1.4345 and subsequent pullback that left long-legged daily candle. Yesterday’s range of 1.4194/1.4345, marks initial sup/res levels, break of which is needed to define direction and expose key barriers at 1.4145 and 1.4388 (base and top of daily Ichimoku cloud).
Setup of daily technical indicators is mixed and suggests extended consolidation, as strong support zone at 1.4220/00 zone (hourly cloud base / daily 10SMA), holds for now, but violation of these support, would be seen as initial signal of fresh weakness.
Res: 1.4277; 1.4300; 1.4345; 1.4388
Sup: 1.4200; 1.4175; 1.4145; 1.4100
USDJPY
The pair probes above pivotal 109.08 barrier (recovery top of 08 Apr), fresh extension of recovery from 107.60 zone, where double-bottom was formed, with fresh bullish acceleration expected.
The notion is supported by daily RSI / Slow Stochastic, which reversed from oversold zone and show plenty of room for correction.
Release of dollar-supportive US data may further accelerate correction and expose strong resistances at 110.00 (psychological resistance / Fibo 38.2% of 113.79/107.60 downleg) and former critical supports at 110.65/111.00, now acting as strong resistances.
However, the action is seen as correction of larger bears and offering selling opportunities for resumption broader downtrend from 125.84 (June 2015 peak).
Res: 109.73; 110.00; 110.65; 111.00
Sup: 108.42; 108.09; 107.60; 107.00
AUDUSD
The pair consolidates three-day recovery that extended today and approached key barrier at 0.7721 (31 Mar peak). Pullback dipped to 0.7643 so far, keeping intact pivotal supports at 0.7628/15 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7490/0.7714 / hourly cloud top) and 0.7595 (hourly cloud base / daily 20SMA), violation of which would signal upside rejection and extension of pullback towards the mid-zone of short-term consolidation range, established between 0.7475 and 0.7712.
Daily RSI / Momentum are turning lower, but bullish setup of daily MA’s, leaves space for further easing, before bulls take control again.
Res: 0.7687; 0.7714; 0.7721; 0.7769
Sup: 0.7643; 0.7628; 0.7615; 0.7595
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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