Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro closed in green on Friday, pausing strong three-day fall. Bears found footstep at 1.08, where hourly base is formed. This marks solid near-term support, which is reinforced by rising daily 20SMA and former low of 07 Dec.
Bounce off 1.08 confirms near-term range, established between 1.08 and 1.1058, also daily 20SMA as support and 200SMA as the upper boundary. Daily indicators are bullishly aligned, but mixed setup of daily MA’s suggests prolonged range-trading, while the price remains entrenched within range limits.
On the other side, weak structure of near-term studies, sees limited upside attempts, as initial barrier at 1.0900, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1058/1.0800 / hourly Ichimoku cloud top, stays intact for now. Break here is needed to spark stronger recovery and neutralize existing threats of renewed attack at 1.08 base and fresh bearish acceleration, expected on sustained break lower.
Res: 1.0900; 1.0925; 1.0960; 1.1009
Sup: 1.0840; 1.0800; 1.0770; 1.0725
GBPUSD
Cable trades in extended consolidation above fresh eight-month low at 1.4863, posted last week. Strong four-day fall off 1.5237 peak was so far contained by weekly bear-channel support line, guarding another strong support zone at 1.4830/12, lows of 2013.
Structure of daily studies is negative and favors bearish resumption, after consolidative phase.
Clear break below bear-channel support, may trigger fresh acceleration lower, for full retracement of 1.4563/1.5928 rally.
Hourly studies hold neutral tone, while bearish setup on 4-hour chart sees limited upside attempts, before fresh bearish acceleration.
However, caution is required, as daily slow Stochastic is oversold. Bullish signals will be generated on sustained break above psychological 1.50 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5237/1.4863 downleg, reinforced by daily 20SMA.
Res: 1.4951; 1.5000; 1.5050; 1.5099
Sup: 1.4881; 1.4863; 1.4830; 1.4812
USDJPY
The pair holds within narrow range, consolidating Friday’s sharp fall that dipped to 121.04 low and retraced over 76.4% of 120.33/123.53 recovery rally.
Near-term price action holds under initial barriers at 121.45/58, daily Ichimoku cloud top / 200SMA, with break here and 122 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 123.53/121.02 fall, required to signal stronger recovery.
Technicals remain weak on all timeframes and see limited upside actions for now. Close above daily 20SMA at 122.27 is required to confirm reversal, otherwise, likely near-term scenario sees lower top formation and fresh weakness through 121 handle, for full retracement of 120.33/123.53 rally.
Res: 121.58; 122.00; 122.27; 122.86
Sup: 121.04; 120.56; 120.33; 120.00
USDCAD
The pair enters extended consolidation, after initial attack at psychological 1.40 barrier failed. Friday’s Doji confirms indecision, as daily studies are oversold but no reversal signal being generated so far.
The second consecutive strong weekly bullish close gives bullish signals, however, caution is required as weekly studies are also overbought.
Consolidative action should be ideally contained by rising daily 10 SMA, while extension below 20SMA will be seen as signal for stronger correction.
Sustained break above 1.40 zone, also lower top of May 2004, to signal bullish resumption and expose next targets at 1.4190, June 2003 lower top and 1.4500, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of multi-year 1.6191/0.9048 descend.
Res: 1.3960; 1.4000; 1.4079; 1.4206
Sup: 1.3904; 1.3853; 1.3796; 1.3755
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.