Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD: Sept 1, 2014



gbp  WEEKLY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Sep 2014 00:05GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
1.6589

55 HR EMA

1.6586

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
53

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall

Resistance
1.6680 - Last Wed's high
1.6657 - Aug 14 low
1.6615 - Last Thur's high

Support
1.6535 - Last Mon's low (NZ)
1.6523 - 50% r of 1.5854-1.7192
1.6460 - Mar 24 low


. GBP/USD - 1.6593... Despite a gap-down open to a 4-1/2 month trough of 1.6535 in NZ last Mon, cable swung wildly for rest of the week. Price staged a short-covering rebound to 1.6599 on Mon b4 falling back to 1.6537 at Wed open but only to climb to a 1-week high of 1.6615 Thur, then moved sideways on Fri.

. Looking at the bigger picture, although sterling finally found respite after enduring 6 weeks of losing streak n initial choppy trading abv 1.6535 is envisaged, a daily close abv 1.6657 (prev. low) is needed to confirm MT fall fm 2014 6-year peak at 1.7192 (Jul) has finally made a temporary low, then stronger gain to 1.6680 res wud be seen, a break there wud violate the recent series of lower highs n lower lows n yield corerction twd 1.6864 (50% r of 1.7192-1.6535).

Until then, as dlr is expected to rise vs its major peers, selling the pound in anticipation of resumption of MT downtrend to 1.6523 (50% r of LT intermediate rise fm 1.5854-1.7192) is still favoured, reckon daily up at 1.6460 (Mar low) may hold on 1st testing.

. Today, intra-day weakness in eur/usd shud weigh on cable n as long as 1.6615 holds, decline twd 1.6535 is likely n only abv 1.6555/57 risks 1.6580.

gbp

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