TradeTheNews.com Staff
TradeTheNews.com
Notes/Observations
- Shanghai Composite hits fresh 7-year highs on reports PBoC said to discuss QE
Economic data
- (DE) Germany Mar Import Price Index (beat) M/M: 1.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.0%e
- (FI) Finland Apr Consumer Confidence Index (miss): 11.4 v 12.0e; Business Confidence: N-7 v -7 prior
- (FI) Finland Mar Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6% prior
Fixed Income:
- None seen
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.7%, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 7,042, DAX -0.2% at 11,785, CAC-40 -1% at 11,415, IBEX-35 -0.8% at 11,414, FTSE MIB -0.8% at 23,231, SMI -0.7% at 9,240, Athens Stock Exchange -0.2%, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,112]
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets open mostly higher, tracking recent gains in US equities; Markets later pare gains; Greek banks trade lower by over 1%; IT name Capgemini to acquire iGate; Deutsche Bank issues strategy update, cut ROE target, Q1 revenues above ests; Event risks for the week include US Fed decision, German CPI, US GDP, UK GDP, BoJ decision, Apple earnings.
By Sector
- Financials [Deutsche Postbank DPB.DE +11% (Deutsche Bank to examine options for unit), HSBC HSBA.UK +3% (speculation related to UK retail banking unit); Deutsche Bank DBK.DE -2% (cautious ROE target), Bankia BKIA.ES -2% (Net interest income below ests)]
- Industrials [Volkswagen VOW3.DE +4% (Chairman resigned), Sandvik SAND.SE +3% (Q1 results above ests), Vinci DG.FR ]
- Energy [Tullow Oil TLW.UK +4% (favorable decision in Ghana)]
- Healthcare [Swedish Orphan Biovitrum SOBI.SE +20% (takeover speculation)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [SSAB SSABA.SE +7% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Joyou JY8.DE -60% (accounting update)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Financials -1%, Industrials -0.8%, Energy -0.7%, Utilities -0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.6%, Basic Materials -0.5%, Telecom -0.5%; Consumer Cyclical +1.5%, Technology +0.1%]
Speakers
- Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem reiterated the view of no 'major' third aid program for Greece
- Greece President Pavlopoulos ruled out possibility of an exit from EMU ("Grexit')
- Spain PM Rajoy stated that he saw 2015 and 2016 GDP growth at 2.9%
- ECB's Nouy (head of SSM): Limiting banking union to Euro Zone risks contagion effect
- South Korea President Park said to accept PM Lee resignation
- Fitch cuts Japan Sovereign Rating to A from A+ (one notch); Outlook Stable. It cited the fact that the Japanese government did not include sufficient structural fiscal measures in its budget for the fiscal year April 2015-March 2016 (FY15) to replace a deferred consumption tax increase.
- Saudi Prince Abdulaziz reiterated to meet any demand for oil; oil market was 'excellent'
Currencies
- The USD was marginally firmer against the major pairs in quiet trading. The mid-part of the week will be 'action packed' with several key rate decisions (included FOMC, BOJ, Riksbank, Brazil).
- The EUR/USD tested 1.0830 as the Friday Eurogroup meeting failed to reach any agreement on Greece. The next schedule Eurogroup meeting is scheduled for May 11th. Reports circulated that the deadline for a Greek agreement could be extended until May 25th. This would still allow 5 weeks for domestic parliaments to ratify (before June-end final deadline)
- The USD/JPY edged back above the 119 level ahead of Thursday BOJ decision. Some govt officials putting the BOJ under pressure to expand its QE but analyst put the probability around 20% at this time. The yen hit a bit more turbulence after Fitch cut its sovereign rating a notch to "A"
**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Reports circulated that tax debtors were seeing their accounts frozen, which some see as a sign of the arrival of "hard" capital controls
Looking Ahead
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (BR) Brazil Apr CNI Consumer Confidence: No est v 100 prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €1.5-2,0B in 2017 CTZ
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €0.5-0.75B in I/L 2021 and 2024 Bonds
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.5B in 12-month BuBills
- 06:00 (UK) Apr CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: 4e v 0 prior; Selling Prices: 2e v 4 prior; Business Optimism: 19e v 15 prior
- 06:00 Turkey to sell 2020 and 2025 bonds
- 06:00 (Il) Israel to sell 2017, 2019, 2024 and 2045 Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.8%e v 0.4% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 82.9 prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) in Brussels
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:20 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Poland PM Kopacz in Warsaw
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 2.329T prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.0-6.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.10%
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 4.2%e v 4.5% prior; Unemployment Rate NSA (unadj): 4.2%e v 4.3% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Trade Balance: $0.6Be v $0.6B prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases
- 09:45 (US) Apr Preliminary Markit Services PMI: 58.8e v 59.2 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 59.2 prior
- 10:30 (US) Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing. Activity: -12.0e v -17.4 prior
- 11:30 (EU) EU's Katainen debates the Future of Europe in Luxembourg
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (FR) France Mar Net Change Jobseekers: No est v +12.8K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.500Me v 3.494M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $26B in 2-Year Notes
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Tax Collections (BRL): 94.7Be v 90.0B prior
- 13:30 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen speaks in London
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 18:40 (AU) RBA' Gov Stevens speech in Sydney
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.6%e v 0.7% prior; Retail Trade Y/Y: -7.5%e v -1.7% prior (revised from -1.8%); Large Retailers' Sales: -10.9%e v 1.3% prior
- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Feb Trade Balance: -$0.3Be v -$0.8B prior; Imports Y/Y: -3.1%e v -14.2% prior
- 21:00 (AU) Australia to sell Inflation-linked Bonds
- 23:00 (TH) Thailand Mar Customs Trade Balance: $0.5Be v $0.4B prior; Customs Exports Y/Y: -3.5%e v -6.1% prior; Customs Imports Y/Y: +0.3%e v +1.5% prior
- 23:00 (TH) Bank of Thailand to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bill
- 23:45 (JP) Japan to sell 2-Year JGB Bonds
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.