The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A small dip and then higher again. After an initial attempt lower the buyers came as anticipated back pushing prices higher and up to the weekly mid body point at 1.0798 (actually a few points above before settling down). We think that the same kind of behavior is applicable for today so look for a slide into the 1.0720’s before continuing higher, ideally up to 1.0940-ish early next in order to complete wave c within the bear triangle. Ending today below 1.0688 and the 1.0940 move will fade away.
USD/JPY: Slipped through the support line. After yesterday’s close below the support line the pressure to break below the b-wave low, 118.71, has clearly increased. A successful break (a close today below 118.80 = a bearish key week reversal) will point at 117.15 as being the next point of attraction.
GBP/USD: Challenging the 1.4970/1.5008 res. After four consecutive days higher the pair now stands ready to challenge the resistance in the 1.50-area. The probability for at least an attempt above 1.5008 must be regarded high but this resistance in the 55d ma band will be a real obstacle to a sustained move higher (but ending today above 1.4981 = a bullish key week reversal = enhanced risk of a more profound correction).
AUD/USD: Bulls puts more skin in the game. Another convincing winner was added yesterday. It broke a short-term "Equality point" with a vengeance and is pressing hard against the alternative 127.2% Fibo extension ref at 0.7815 and the high end of the 55day exponentially weighted moving average band (0.7840). If cutting those, extension towards 0.7885\0.7940 should also be accounted for. Support is getting stronger by the hour around 0.7740.
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