EUR/USD: little help from soft US data

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0787

The American dollar traded generally lower at the beginning of the day, despite European data fail to inspire confidence in the region. The release of the third quarter GDP figures showed that, seasonally adjusted, the EU grew less than expected, up by 0.3% against a forecast of 0.4%. Earlier in the day, German GDP came in line with expectations, for the same period. The EU trade balance recorded a €20.5B surplus in September 2015, improving from the previous reading, and beating expectations. The EUR/USD pair advanced up to 1.0807, but retreated down to its comfort zone around 1.0750/60 ahead of the release of US data. In the world's largest economy, Retail Sales in October missed expectations monthly basis, up by 0.1% compared to expectations of a 0.3% advance. Also, the producer price index declined by 1.6% in the same month and compared to a year before, far worse than expected.

The EUR/USD pair spiked after the news, approaching the mentioned daily high ahead of the US opening, although still unable to confirm further gains. In the 1 hour chart, the price is unable to advance above its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned higher below their mid-lines, enough, however, to keep the downside limited. In the 4 hours chart the price is holding above a horizontal 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are holding above their mid-lines, in line with the shorter term picture. Additional gains beyond 1.0810 may see the pair rallying up to 1.0890, particularly if the upcoming US data continues disappointing. Nevertheless, it would take more than a 200 pips recovery to affect the dominant bearish trend.

Support levels: 1.0745 1.0690 1.0650

Resistance levels: 1.0810 1.0850 1.0890

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5253

View Live Chart for the GPB/USD

The GBP/USD pair consolidated its gains in the 1.5220 region for most of the European morning, breaking through its previous weekly high and setting a fresh one at 1.5262 right after the release of soft US inflation and sales data. The pair has been advancing steadily this week, ever since bottoming around 1.5026 last Friday, and the short term technical picture favors the upside, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price has extended above its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head higher around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the price is advancing above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are recovering their bullish slopes after a downward corrective movement towards their mid-lines, all of which supports some further gains, particularly on a break above 1.5260, and towards 1.5305, the 200 EMA in this last time frame.

Support levels: 1.5220 1.5195 1.5160

Resistance levels: 1.5260 1.5305 1.5340

USD/JPY Current price: 122.64

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

The Japanese yen advanced further during the Asian session, helped by a strong decline in commodities and stocks all across the world. Also, the Economics Minister Akira Amari said on Friday that he is not considering extend the ongoing stimulus to stimulate growth, which may result in further JPY gains should chances of a rate hike in the US diminish somehow, during the upcoming days. The pair fell down to 122.42 following the release of worse-than-expected US Retail Sales and PPI figures, but managed to bounce pretty fast. Anyway, the 1 hour chart shows that the price found some buying interest around its 200 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head in neutral territory, lacking directional strength. in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators lack directional strength, but stand below their mid-lines, in line with the ongoing bearish tone.

Support levels: 122.40 122.10 121.75

Resistance levels: 122.80 123.10 123.45

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