KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
The Central European currencies saw a mixed trading on Friday. While the koruna slightly strengthened against the euro, both the zloty and the forint weakened. The forint fell by about 0.6 % vis-à-vis the common currency over the past two days as lower than expected inflation in November (and, probably even more importantly, lower core inflation) triggered some bets on a restart of monetary policy easing cycle.
In the week ahead, the calendar is filled mostly with Polish data. Later today, the statistical office will release data on inflation. Our estimate is in line with the market consensus, i.e. we estimate a price decrease by -0.5% Y/Y and -0.1% M/M in November. In month-on-month terms, we expect that plunging oil prices played a key role in pushing inflation rate below zero. Although we forecast inflation in Poland to remain below zero at least until the end of the first quarter next year, we trust the central bank to keep its word and shrug off inflation figures as long as the perspectives of the real economy remain good.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.