FX Board: USDCHF bulls throw down the gauntlet

• USD gains across the board
  

• USD's strength most impressive vs suddenly weaker CHF
  

• Gold falls to fresh lows
  

• Next week densely packed with event risks for the USD, EUR, AUD and CAD
  

• Looking for GBPUSD to push below 1.5000 if greenback keeps broad strength

A resurgent US dollar and suddenly softer Swiss franc took USDCHF to five-year highs.

Key FX developments today

The USD rose across the board , turning back a charge by the Japanese yen overnight, overturning the recent commodity currency resilience, and regaining this week's strongest levels against the euro.

But it was against a suddenly weaker Swiss franc that the USD made the largest impression, as USDCHF climbed to strong new highs for the cycle, well clear of the early 2015 high near 1.0240 and threatening the highest weekly close since way back in 2010.

In line with the burst of USD strength, gold prices fell to fresh lows for the cycle and could go on to threaten the $1,000/oz level quickly if the rather sloppy, but somewhat defined, descending channel is broken up by further downward impulses.

Looking ahead, it is not easy to discern the quality of today's moves, coming as they are amid relatively thin liquidity as the US is only back for a half day of trading today after yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday

But next week is densely packed with event risks for the USD, EUR, AUD and CAD as we are also nearing key technical levels in a number of USD pairs, not least GBPUSD where we look for a push below 1.5000 if the greenback maintains broad strength next week.

EURUSD

EURUSD pushed at yesterday's lows again today after a half-hearted squeeze yesterday, and we continue to see the pair churning lower with backfill. This suggests that bears are nervous that they are over-extended, but that bulls are hardly providing any convincing bids at the moment. The obvious focus is the psychologically important 1.0500 area and then the lows for the cycle near 1.0460.

USDCHF

USDCHF was in breakout mode today as the pre-CHF revaluation high around 1.0240 was solidly taken out. The pair is pointing higher still with that level now looking like the near-term support, followed by parity if the USD cannot follow through stronger next week.

EURCHF

The fact that EURCHF is trading higher despite anticipation of next week's easing move from the ECB is rather remarkable. Is this simply a bit of weak intervention or running of stops, or will we see a more intense focus on CHF depreciation potential after next week? Certainly December 3 (ECB meeting) to December 10 (SNB meeting) is the key window for pivoting one way or the other. Important for the near term is a close solidy above 1.0900 to keep the technical focus higher.

GBPUSD

Cable is trying to limp into the weekend without posting new lows for the cycle, but will be hard pressed to survive an eventual test below 1.5000 in coming sessions if the greenback maintains a broad bid-tone. Interest rate spreads suggest that the pair should be testing 1.4600 or lower, but the focus on the weak euro and EURGBP has perhaps kept sterling somewhat resilient in this pair.

XAUUSD

Spot gold smacked fresh multi-year lows today as we watch whether precious metals merely continue to grind lower or whether momentum picks up on a psychologically damaging assault on $1,000/oz. The first step, of course, would be for gold to close trading this week and early next week at new lows for the cycle, as persistent trends have been hard to come by.