EUR/USD: NFP disappoints, dollar not that much

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1157

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The release of the monthly employment report in the US has kept the FX market on hold for most of the past week, to finally come out much worse-than-expected. The US added 151K new jobs in August, against the 180K expected, although July figure was revised to 275K from previous 255K. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, while wage growth was poor, increasing just 0.1% monthly basis, and 2.4% in a year-on-year comparison, below previous 0.3% and 2.6% respectively.

The American dollar initially plummeted against all of its major rivals as hopes of a September hike were diluted by the news, but Central Bank imbalances, particularly when compared to Japan and Europe, weighed more: the JPY and the EUR fell below pre-NFP levels, while the Pound hold to its early week strength, based on strong UK macroeconomic data.

The EUR/USD pair failed to establish above the 1.1200 figure, closing in the red for a second consecutive week, and not far from the 1.1122 low. The technical picture favors a new leg lower for these upcoming days, given that in the daily chart, the pair is below its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators are biased lower within negative territory. Furthermore, the pair corrected up to the 50% retracement of its latest bullish run before resuming its slide. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have lost directional strength within neutral territory, reflecting the uncertainty over what's next for the pair, whilst the 20 an 200 SMAs converge a few pips above the current level, also horizontal. A bearish extension below 1.1120 should open doors for a steeper decline towards the critical 1.1000 level.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1250 1.1290 1.1335

EUR/JPY Current price: 116.06

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The EUR/JPY pair closed the week around 116.00, its highest since late July as the Japanese yen was unable to rally on poor US employment data. In fact, relief among stocks' traders over a rate hike in the US being delayed beyond this September, fueled yen's losses. The EUR/JPY pair advanced up to 116.36 reaching there the 23.6% retracement of the 109.36/118.46 post-Brexit rally, and seems poised to extend its rally, given that the price is steadily recovering after bottoming around the 61.8% retracement of the same rally. Technically, the daily chart shows that indicators continue marching north well above their mid-lines, although the 100 DMA stands around 117.10, providing a strong dynamic resistance. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that technical indicators have retraced modestly from overbought readings, but also that the price holds near its highs and above its 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest advancing below the larger, also in line with an upward extension.

Support levels: 115.25 114.95 114.40

Resistance levels:  116.30 116.75 117.10

GBP/USD Current price: 1.3296

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The GBP/USD pair closed the week with strong gains just a couple of pips below the 1.3300 level, although it was unable to sustain gain beyond 1.3320, the 23.6% retracement of the post-Brexit slump, and a major static resistance, given that advances beyond it have been short-lived ever since June 24th. The Sterling Pound advanced for a third consecutive week against its American rival, underpinned by strong macroeconomic readings suggesting that the UK economy rebounded in August, after July's setback. Trading near a breakout point, the daily chart shows a positive tone, although no actual upward momentum coming from technical readings, as the price stands at the higher end of its last two-month range. Beyond the mentioned Fibonacci resistance, August high at 1.3370 is the relevant resistance, and the level to surpass to confirm a firmer recovery. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA heads north while crossing above the 200 EMA, whilst the technical indicators consolidate near overbought territory, supporting further gains for these upcoming days.

Support levels: 1.3250 1.3210 1.3165

Resistance levels: 1.3320 1.3370 1.3425

USD/JPY Current price: 104.01

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The Japanese yen fell down to 104.31 against the greenback last Friday, reaching levels last seen late July. Wall Street surged as the poor Nonfarm Payroll report took a US September rate hike out of the table, undermining the Japanese currency. The USD/JPY pair closed the week around 104.00, overall bullish according to the daily chart, as technical indicators maintain strong bullish slopes near overbought territory, although the pair will have to face a strong dynamic resistance, a bearish 100 DMA at 104.70, and extend beyond it to confirm  a steeper recovery during the upcoming sessions. According to the 4 hours chart, the upward potential seems limited, as the Momentum indicator diverges from price's action, heading lower within positive territory, while the RSI indicator consolidates around 70. In this last time frame, the price is well above its 100 and 200 SMAs, but the shorter remains well below the largest, not enough at this point to support an upward continuation.

Support levels: 103.60 103.10 102.70

Resistance levels: 104.30 104.70 105.10

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7568

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The AUD/USD pair closed the week pretty much flat a handful of pips below the 0.7600 figure, having however, recovered from a 4-week low of 0.7490. A dismal US employment report alongside with a nice comeback in stocks helped the pair to advance up to 0.7615 last Friday, albeit the price retreated before the weekly close. The Aussie has been quite weak during the last few days, weighed by the poor performance of commodities and equities, but misses in US PMIs on Thursday, and employment on Friday limited the decline in the pair. Still, the pair has little room for advances, as the daily chart shows that the price retreated sharply after testing a bearish 20 SMA, while ending below a daily ascendant trend line broken at the beginning of the week. In the same chart, technical indicators have recovered modestly within negative territory, but remain below their mid-lines. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is currently above a horizontal 20 SMA, but still below the 200 EMA, whilst indicators have lost upward potential within positive territory, indicating decreasing buying interest around the current region.

Support levels: 0.7535 0.7490 0.7450

Resistance levels: 0.7600 0.7645 0.7690