EUR/USD: marginally higher, still struggling with 1.1200

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1183

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As usual, financial activity started in slow motion this Monday, fueled further by half Europe being down on holidays. The dollar, however, remained under selling pressure, edging lower against all of its major rivals, except for the Pound, weighed by poor macroeconomic figures that keep delaying chances of a FED's rate hike. There were no macroeconomic releases in the EU, while the US released the New York manufacturing survey, showing that business conditions fell to -4.2 from previous 0.55, weighing on the USD. Wall Street surged to fresh all-time highs, helping the EUR/USD pair trading up to 1.1203 during the American afternoon.

This Tuesday will bring a more interesting macroeconomic calendar, with German ZEW Survey, European Trade Balance, and more relevant US inflation figures for July, alongside with other minor reports. The focus will be in inflation, expected generally unchanged from previous month reading, as an upward surprise in there can give the dollar a breath.

In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1180 by the end of the day, marginally higher, but still unable to settle above the 1.1190/1.1200 region, and with the 4 hours chart showing that the technical indicators have turned lower within positive territory, with the Momentum poised to enter in bearish territory. Still the price is holding above a modestly bullish  20 SMA in the 1.1160 region, while also above the 23.6% retracement of the latest bullish run limiting chances of a downward extension. The critical support comes at 1.1125, the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned rally, and the level to break to see the pair correcting further lower.

Support levels: 1.1160 1.1125 1.1090

Resistance levels: 1.1190 1.1235 1.1280

EUR/JPY Current price: 113.15

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The EUR/JPY pair edged modestly higher on Monday, as the Japanese yen retains its bullish strength against most of its major rivals, beyond risk sentiment. The pair continues pressuring the 112.80 critical Fibonacci support, the 61.8% retracement of the post-Brexit recovery, having fell intraday down to a fresh 2-week low of 112.67, in line with the underlying bearish trend. Short term, however, the pair maintains a neutral stance, with the 1 hour chart showing that the price is unable to extend beyond a horizontal 100 SMA, and the technical indicators going nowhere within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator continues horizontal, stuck around its 100 level, while the RSI hovers around 49, with no certain directional strength. In this last time frame, the 100 SMA has extended its decline below the 200 SMA, with the shortest around 114.10, offering a strong intraday resistance in the case of a sudden recovery.

Support levels:  112.80 112.30 111.90

Resistance levels: 113.40 113.75 114.10

GBP/USD Current price: 1.2881

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The GBP/USD pair fell down to 1.2865 this Monday, with no certain catalyst beyond the move, but self Pound's weakness. The UK released no macroeconomic data, although will offer different inflation figures on Tuesday, including CPI, PPI and the Retail Price index for July. The readings will be closely watched as it will be post-Brexit data, seizing the effect of the UK's decision to leave the EU. Inflation is expected to have fallen by 0.1% during the month, and to have held steady around 0.5% year-on-year, but market's forecasts seem too optimistic and  a negative surprise  could see the pair falling below the 1.2793 multi-decade low posted last July. In the meantime, the pair holds below the 1.2900 level, with the short term picture supporting a bearish extension during the upcoming session, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is being capped by a bearish 20 SMA, currently at 1.2895, whilst the technical indicators remain flat within negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has accelerated its decline above the current level, now offering a dynamic resistance around 1.2940, whilst the technical indicators hold within negative territory, with no directional strength.

Support levels: 1.2870 1.2830 1.2790

Resistance levels: 1.2900 1.2940 1.2985

USD/JPY Current price: 101.16

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The Japanese yen appreciated modestly against its American rival at the beginning of the week, but the USD/JPY pair remained confined to a tight intraday range, recovering from 100.86, the daily low, to settle a couple of pips below Friday's close. Japan released its preliminary Q2 GDP figures during the past Asian session, but the currency was little impacted by the news. The report showed that the country grew an annualized rate of 0.2% in the three months to June, well below previous 2.0% or the expected 0.7%. Industrial Production in the country during June was a bit more encouraging, up by 2.3% against May's 1.9%, while the year-on-year reading resulted at -1.5% compared to previous -1.9%. The overall picture continues favoring the Japanese yen, with the pair still close to the 100.65 region, the 50% retracement of the "Abenomics" era, and the level to beat to see a downward acceleration. Nevertheless a due to the tight intraday range, the 4 hours chat shows that technical indicators hover around their mid-lines with no certain directional strength, but also that the price remains below a bearish 100 SMA that is currently extending below the 200 SMA, both above the current level.

Support levels: 101.00 100.65 100.20

Resistance levels: 101.40 101.95 102.35

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7681

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The AUD/USD pair recovered ground this Monday, bouncing from a daily low set at 0.7636 on the back of dollar's weakness. There was little driving the market, but the Aussie found support in the steady recovery of oil prices, as the commodity extended its rally beyond $ 45.00 a barrel. The pair however, held below the 0.7700 figure, and the technical picture in the short term shows a limited upward potential, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is above its 20 SMA, but the technical indicators have turned  south within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, a bearish 20 SMA capped the upside, while technical indicators have turned flat below their mid-lines, after recovering from near oversold readings. The pair needs to recover above the mentioned 0.7700 level to be able to resume its advance and attempt a test of the year high in the 0.7830 region, although a break below 0.7600, a strong Fibonacci support, will likely signal a deeper downward corrective move that can extend down to 0.7450.

Support levels: 0.7635 07600 0.7570

Resistance levels: 0.7700 0.7740 0.7790