EUR/USD: holding above critical support, but not for long

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1076

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There was little action in the financial world this Monday, with the week starting in slow motion amid a holiday in Japan. The latest developments in Turkey had a little effect over global assets, although risk sentiment turned sour, sending investors back into safe-haven assets, resulting in US yields falling back. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 1.568% from Friday's 1.594%.

The American dollar ended the day modestly lower against all of its major rivals, except for when confronted to Japanese yen, but stands not far from the highs posted last Friday. There were no relevant macroeconomic releases in Europe or America, and the main focus these days is the upcoming ECB meeting on Thursday. Given that the European Central Bank is still implementing its latest measures, seems hard that Draghi may announce further easing this month, although he is expected to assess the impact of the Brexit. Still, the meeting is closer to be a non-event than ever.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair continues presenting a neutral stance, holding within its latest range, and with an increasing downward potential, as the pair spent the day at the lower end of the last 3-week range. Still, a break below the 1.1000 level is required to confirm a downward extension towards the 1.0910 level. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart shows that the price remained contained below its 20 and 100 SMAs that anyway lack directional strength, whilst the technical indicators hold within negative territory, also without clear momentum.

Support levels:  1.1045 1.1000 1.0960

Resistance levels: 1.1095 1.1150 1.1190

EUR/JPY Current price: 117.43

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Following a dull start of the day, the Japanese yen fell in US trading hours, as despite US equities failed to extend their rallies, held  near record highs. The EUR/JPY pair recovered the 117.00 level, and points to close the day above the 61.8% retracement of its post-Brexit slump and 117.20, now the immediate support, maintaining the positive tone in the short term, as in the 1 hour chart, the price recovered quickly after briefly breaking below its 100 SMA, now around 116.60. In the same chart, technical indicators have turned modestly lower within positive territory, still far from confirming a bearish move ahead. In the 4 hours chart, however, the price held above its 200 SMA, whilst the technical indicators bounced from their mid-lines, maintaining the risk towards the upside, as long as the mentioned 116.60 level holds.

Support levels: 117.20 116.60 116.10

Resistance levels: 117.60 118.00 118.90

GBP/USD Current price: 1.3260

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The GBP/USD pair recovered some ground this Monday, extending up to 1.3314 early in the US session, but retreating from the Fibonacci resistance area to end the day a handful of pips above its Friday's close of 1.3218. Things seem to have stabilized for both, the UK government and the Pound, after the kingdom sorted out a new government. Still the fact that is delaying, probably until December, triggering the art. 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to begin splitting of the rest of the EU, is a risk of high factor that may hit the Pound in the nearest future, particularly if the region's authorities start demanding action. The UK will release its June PPI and CPI figures this Tuesday, expected slightly better than those of May, although seems unlikely that macroeconomic data can put the Pound in the bullish side these days. Technically, the risk remains towards the downside, as in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators head modestly lower, although within neutral territory, while the price is moving back and forth around a horizontal 20 SMA.

Support levels: 1.3230 1.3185 1.3130

Resistance levels: 1.3320 1.3360 1.3400

USD/JPY Current price: 106.03

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The USD/JPY bounced sharply from a daily low of 105.26, reached during the US session, settling a few pips above the 106.00 level at the end of the day. Despite risk sentiment favored safe-haven assets, the likelihood of fiscal and monetary stimulus in Japan limited demand for the local currency, favoring better its American rival. The pair has traded as high as 106.31 last week, and the 1 hour chart shows that intraday declines towards the 105.00 level keep attracting buying interest. Also, and in the same chart, the price continues developing well above a bullish 20 SA, currently around 105.15 whilst the technical indicators remain within positive territory, although with no upward strength. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator bounced from its 100 level, heading now north ahead of the Asian opening, whilst the RSI indicator also heads higher, around 67, maintaining the risk towards the upside.

Support levels: 105.15 104.70 104.25

Resistance levels: 106.40 106.80 107.25

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7595

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The AUD/USD pair ends the day flat a few pips below the 0.7600 level, and around the 23.6% retracement of its yearly bullish run, weighed earlier in the day by an intraday slump in oil prices. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for Australia increased 0.1% in May to 102.6, helping the antipodean currency during US trading hours, but not enough to push it beyond Friday's close. The RBA will release the Minutes of its July meeting during the upcoming Asian session, and investors will be looking there for clues of upcoming rates' moves in the country. If the RBA opens door for further cuts amid recent local political turmoil  the Aussie may fall as low as 0.7450 against the greenback during the upcoming sessions. Technically, the pair  has made little progress, as in the 4 hours chart the pair has been clearly consolidating below the mentioned Fibonacci  level at 0.7600, although technical readings suggest the risk is towards the downside, as the price is below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicator have turned modestly higher, but are still within negative territory.  

Support levels: 0.7570 0.7545 0.7500

Resistance levels: 0.7620 0.7660 0.7710