EUR/USD: above pre-Payrolls levels, poised to retest 1.1235

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1169

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Dollar's weakness was the main theme across the forex board this Wednesday, exacerbated by thin trading conditions. Having been unable to rally over the firsts two days of the week, bulls finally gave up, leading to a sell-off  of the American currency. US treasury yields dropped, down to 1.51% from previous 1.54%, adding to the bearish case of the greenback. The macroeconomic calendar was empty in Europe, with no relevant news releases, while in the US, the number of job openings was little changed, up to  5.62 million on the last business day of June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The EUR/USD pair surged up to 1.1189, a major resistance level, given that it contained rallies for over a month after the Brexit, spending all of the American session consolidating below it, but above 1.1160, the immediate short term support. Nevertheless, a slightly positive tone persists ahead of the Asian opening, as in the 4 hours chart, the price is holding well above its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators consolidate near overbought territory. The price is hovering around the 23.6% retracement of its latest weekly bullish run, with the 38.2% retracement of the same rally at 1.1125, the level to break to deny an upward continuation for this Thursday.

Support levels: 1.1160 1.1125 1.1080

Resistance levels: 1.1190 1.1235 1.1280

EUR/JPY Current price: 113.15

View Live Chart for the EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair ends the day pretty much flat around 113.15, having, however, posted a lower low weekly basis of 112.77, but was unable to break below the key Fibonacci support, as both currencies were generally stronger against the greenback. From a technical point of view, the risk is towards the downside, as in the 1 hour chart, an early advance was contained by a bearish 200 SMA, currently at 113.40, whilst the technical indicators have lost upward strength and are currently flat within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the 100 SMA has extended its decline, but remains above the 200 SMA, both in the 114.40/80 region, while the technical indicators continue hovering around their mid-lines, with no directional strength.

Support levels:  112.80 112.30 111.90

Resistance levels: 113.40 113.75 114.10

GBP/USD Current price: 1.2995

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD

Pound's downward momentum took a breath this Wednesday, as dollar's weakness helped the GBP/USD pair to recover up to 1.3093, its highest for the week. The pair, however, turned south and plummeted down to 1.2990, after the US EIA reported a large increase in crude stockpiles in the week ending August 5, with the pair consolidating again around the 1.3000 level ahead of the Asian opening. Also, news that the BOE was unable to purchase all of the longer-maturity gilts it attempted to buy from the open market undermined the Pound, although after London's close, the Central Bank stated that they found enough bonds to buy, after coming up short on Tuesday. The technical picture for the GBP/USD pair continues favoring a bearish extension, given that in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have resumed their declines after failing to reenter positive territory, whilst the price develops below a bearish 20 SMA. Furthermore, and despite the intraday advance, the pair trades below 1.3020, the previous weekly high, and the immediate short term resistance, with only a steady advance beyond it denying a short term bearish continuation.  

Support levels: 1.2985 1.2955 1.2910

Resistance levels: 1.3020 1.3060 1.3100

USD/JPY Current price: 101.34

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair fell down to 100.96, from where it bounced modestly, to settle around 101.30 by the end of the US session, down for a second consecutive day. The Japanese yen recovered all of the ground lost after Friday's US Payrolls, and looks poised to extend its gains against its American rival. The USD/JPY stands dangerously close to a major long term support, the 50% retracement of the "Abenomics" rally, measured between 75.56 and 125.85, around 100.66. The level has been repeatedly challenged during the last two months, with the pair having briefly broken below it on Brexit news. Should the level is definitively broken, the decline could extend down to 93.70 during the upcoming months. In the short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the 100 and 200 SMAs converge at 101.80 providing a strong resistance in the case of a recovery, although the technical indicators have lost upward strength and are turning lower around their mid-lines, indicating limited buying interest at current levels. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator heads firmly lower within negative territory, while the RSI indicator consolidates around 37, while the price is roughly 200 pips below its moving averages, all of which supports further slides for the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 101.00 100.65 100.20

Resistance levels: 101.40 101.80 102.35

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7727

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair broke higher, extending its gains up to 0.7755, its highest since April 27th. Data coming from Australian was mixed, although hardly decisive for  the Australian economy.  The Consumer Sentiment gauged by Westpac rose to 2.0% in August while Home Loans expanded 1.2%  monthly basis in June, below market's expectations. Also, RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens, in his departing speech, called from some further action from the government adding that monetary policy is not the answer to all the problems in the country. Stevens will be replaced by his deputy, Philip Lowe, next month. The local currency shrugged of negative news and Stevens' pessimistic words, holding onto gains at the end of the day, in spite of a pullback amid plummeting oil prices. Intraday retracements found buying interest around 0.7700, now the immediate support, and the 4 hours chart shows that the price is well above a bullish 20 SMA, currently around 0.7660, while the technical indicators are retreating from oversold territory, suggesting the pair may decline down to this last support before resuming its advance.

Support levels: 0.7700 0.7660 0.7630

Resistance levels: 0.7760 0.7795 0.7830