The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Credit Suisse.
EUR/USD: Removed our target support zone at 1.2787/55.
EURUSD has broken below our core target zone at 1.2787/55 – the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2012/14 bull trend and July 2013 low. We are wary that prices are becoming exhausted near term, and resistance at 1.2785 needs to cap to keep the immediate risk lower to see a direct extension to 1.2662 next, the November 2012 low. Beneath here would aim at the 78.6% retracement of the 2012/2014 uptrend at 1.2460. Bigger picture we would see scope for 1.2215/10, and potentially as far as the 1.2042 low of 2012.
Resistance shows at 1.2762/70, then 1.2785, above which can see a move back to 1.2801/16. Beyond here is needed to ease the immediate downside bias for strength back to 1.2839, then 1.2865.
CS runs maintains a short EUR/USD following 1.2750 break targeting 1.2662.
USD/JPY: Above 109.46 can target 109.89/93 initially, followed by our 110.60/111.60 target
USDJPY continues to consolidate in its near-term range. However, while still holding above price support at 108.26, the immediate risk stays topside for a retest of the recent peak at 109.46. Beyond here can see 109.89/93 initially, ahead of our target and what we deem as tougher resistance at 110.60/111.60 – the 50% retracement of the entire 1998/2011 bear market and August 2008 high. We would expect to find a cap here initially. A break can target 120.00.
Below 108.26 can mark the formation of a small top for weakness back towards 107.68/48, which we would expect to offer better support.
CS booked profit on its last USD/JPY long and now runs a limit order to re-buy at 108.50.
GBP/USD: While above 1.6162, the recovery can stay intact for now.
GBPUSD found further selling interest and has reverted below support at 1.6246. We ideally look for buying here. Near-term resistance shows at 1.6342, with a break above 1.6416/17 required to see a move back up to test the 1.6525 recent high. Extension through the latter is needed to look on to price and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July/September decline at 1.6622/46 where we would expect renewed selling interest.
Below 1.6162 is needed to reverse the recovery and retest the 1.6052 low.
CS entered a long GBP/USD on Friday from 1.6250 targeting 1.6620.
AUD/USD: We remain bearish for our core bear target at .8674/58.
AUDUSD’s break below the 78.6% retracement of the January/July rally at .8839/31 has ignited further selling interest, for a move lower below price support at .8730 next. Beneath should then see a retest of our .8674/58 target – the January lows and long-term 38.2% retracement support from the 2001/2011 rally. We would expect fresh buyers here. A direct overshoot of the latter can warn of a more serious downtrend towards .8546 next – the 50% retracement of the 2008/2011 uptrend – then .8316.
Immediate resistance shows at .8773, then .8814/26, above which is needed to see a recovery back to .8847/49, potentially .9003.
CS booked profit on its last AUD/USD short and now runs a limit order to resell .8826 targeting .8680.
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