KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Headlines
Temporary relief for Hungarian markets and Polish zloty
The NBP will stay on hold today
Both the Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty firmed as tensions in emerging markets temporary eased and equity markets rebounded. The forint and the zloty gained around 1 % against the euro, so there is still room to erase recent losses triggered by emerging markets’ sell-off.
Retail sales data to be released in the Czech Republic and Hungary today will hardly change regional sentiment since the latter is driven by external factors – first of all by FX volatility on emerging markets. We expect markets to stay cautious about the euro ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting and, even more, Friday’s US Payrolls.
As for other regional events, there is a meeting of the National Bank of Poland scheduled for later today where, we believe, the central bank leaves interest rates unchanged. It may be worth observing the following press conference. We think that the recent turmoil in emerging markets (if the situation does not worsen dramatically) will not have significant impact on NBP decisions. First, the zloty is just about 0.8 % weaker ytd; secondly, the NBP has already completed the easing cycle and the next rate move should go upward; and, last but not least, the next inflation report (to be released in March) will likely show better growth prospects combined with lower inflation (compared to the previous report). A weaker zloty might then help bring inflation closer to the NBP target (2.5% y/y).
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy
USD/JPY has come under intense buying pressure, surging past 156.00 after the Bank of Japan kept the key rate unchanged but tweaked its policy statement. The BoJ maintained its fiscal year 2024 and 2025 inflation forecast, disappointing the Japanese Yen buyers.
AUD/USD consolidates gains above 0.6500 after Australian PPI data
AUD/USD is consolidating gains above 0.6500 in Asian trading on Friday. The pair capitalizes on an annual increase in Australian PPI data. Meanwhile, a softer US Dollar and improving market mood also underpin the Aussie ahead of the US PCE inflation data.
Gold price keeps its range around $2,330, awaits US PCE data
Gold price is consolidating Thursday's rebound early Friday. Gold price jumped after US GDP figures for the first quarter of 2024 missed estimates, increasing speculation that the Fed could lower borrowing costs. Focus shifts to US PCE inflation on Friday.
Stripe looks to bring back crypto payments as stablecoin market cap hits all-time high
Stripe announced on Thursday that it would add support for USDC stablecoin, as the stablecoin market exploded in March, according to reports by Cryptocompare.
US economy: Slower growth with stronger inflation
The US Dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.