Sergey Kamenshikov, Ph.D.
IFC Markets
Summary
Charles Dow postulates assume that a price of a trading instrument reflects all fundamental data instantly. However market efficiency may be preserved partially due to inertial properties. In this case a trader has to take into account related markets when opening a position: network effect arises. Below we represent a plain FX H4 trading system based on two currency indexes and classic ParabolicSAR indicator. After indexes are incorporated in a single platform a trader obtains an opportunity to analyze EUR/USD currency pair, EURi and vs USDi simultaneously at one screen and one time frame. A conservative trading idea is simple: EUR/USD long (short) position should be opened if EURi and vsUSDi give bullish (bearish) signals simultaneously. If inconsistency occurs and signals of two indexes differ then the opened position should be closed immediately. This strong signal shows us inefficient market stages when all players move as a whole. Our hypothesis is that this property may be used for effective trend following.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.