The foreign currencies futures reversed Wednesday’s path in the Far East a few hours faster than I expected, with the European and commodity currencies down and the yen up. Except for the Hang Seng, the other the Asia/Pacific stock markets are down; oil and gold are down as well.
The short-term outlook is bearish for the European and commodity currencies and sideways to slightly bullish for the yen. The medium-term outlook is sideways for the European currencies and the yen and bullish for the commodity currencies. My model is long all of the foreign currencies futures except for the yen.
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Analysis based on:
“Trading in the Global Currency Markets” - Prentice Hall Press, 3rd edition 2007
“Technical Analysis Applications” - McGraw-Hill, 2004Overnight:
- Australia: No data
- Japan: An index monitoring business conditions among corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or more declined 2.4% in the first quarter following a 1.9% decline in the previous quarter. Large manufacturers' conditions were up 4.3% on quarter after surging 13.2% in the previous quarter.
- Japan: Leading index/coincident index for January
Today’s economic calendar:
- Eurozone: Current account for January
- Eurozone: Trade balance for January
- Italy: Trade balance for January
- Switzerland: Trade balance for February
- Switzerland: Industrial production for the fourth quarter
- Switzerland: ZEW survey for March
- UK: CBI Industrial trends March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The June euro remained under pressure in the Far East after reversing from a new high for the upmove on Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day moving average supports at 1.3695. This is followed by 1.3600.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3740. The next caps are 1.3800, 1.3862 and 1.3900.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
JPY - March
Luca Model: Short since March 5
The June Japanese yen edged higher in an inside range after closing flat on Wednesday. It should now test the resistance of its 21-day moving average. The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook remains sideways and my model is short.
The 21-day moving average caps at 111.04. Above 111.56, distant resistance is at 112.49.
Initial support is at 110.62. Below 109.84, distant support lies at 109.24.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: BullishGBP - March
Luca Model: Long since March 11
The June pound slipped in Asia after marking a near three-week high above the 21-day moving average on Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
The 21-day moving average is at 1.5255. The next support is 1.5165.
Initial resistance is 1.5323. The next caps are 1.5412 and 1.5556.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish (overbought)
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CHF - March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The June Swiss franc rallied on Wednesday to the highest level since the end of January but slipped in the Far East. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and my model is long.
Initial support is at .9463 from the 55-day moving average. The 21-day moving average follows at .9391.
Immediate resistance is at .9521 from the 100-day moving average. Further resistance is at .9557 and .9603.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bearish
CAD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The overbought June Canadian dollar encountered minor losses in Asia after surging to a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Immediate support is at .9872. Below .9828, further support is at .9776 and .9711 from the 21-day moving average.
Above the high of the uptrend at .9930, further resistance is seen at .9970.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways (overbought)
MACD: Bullish (overbought)
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
AUD – March
Luca Model: Long since February 26
The June Australian dollar slipped in the Far East after marking a new high for the uptrend on Wednesday. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and my model is long.
Initial support is .9104. Below .9034, the 21-day moving average follows at .8987. Further support is at .8885.
The new high of the uptrend is .9164. Strong resistance follows at .9218. The top of the uptrend is .9275.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways (overbought)
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
