Long held, bigger picture bullish view in the $ index remains in place, as trade from the Jun 1st high at 83.55 is still seen as a correction (wave 4 in the rally from the Feb low at 78.10, see numbering on daily chart below), and with eventual new highs above 83.55 after (within wave 5). However, some risk remains for another few weeks of wide consolidating/ranging (no confirmation that the correction is "complete", also potential large pennant/triangle forming), before the new highs are seen. Note too that the seasonal chart points sharply lower into the end of July (see 3rd chart below) and more important $ tops may have already been seen in some currencies (cable, a$ bottoms, etc. as discussed over the last few weeks), with both adding to the potential for another few weeks of consolidating in the $ index. So from a position standpoint with the market currently just below that 83.55 high, its not seen as a good time to just "chase" the market higher (also near term overbought). Instead for now, would wait for a close above 83.65 (then stopping on a close back below 83.35, would be a bearish false break) or for lower levels over the next few weeks, before buying. Nearby support is seen at 82.25/35 (50% retracement from the Jun 19th low at 81.15) and the bullish trendline from that low/base of the potential triangle (currently at 81.55/65). Unfortunately was stopped on the Jun 21st buy at 82.30 on Jun 29th below the bullish trendline from May 1st (then 81.70, closed 81.65), and before rallying since.
Long held, very long term bullish view remains unchanged, as the market continues to form a large triangle/pennant since Nov 2005, and with eventual gains toward the ceiling (currently at 87.00/25) still favored (see weekly chart/2nd chart below). But as been warning, the move higher is more likely to be an extended period of ranging upward (at least a few months) and versus a sharp move to the ceiling (fits the nearer term view of another few weeks of ranging before resuming the upmove). So for now, would stay with the longer term bullish bias that was put in place on Mar 12th at 80.05.
