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Forex Daily Analysis

12/03/'08 − Can the Dollar Rally?

Wed, Mar 12 2008, 15:29 GMT
by Hugh Gordon

ForexYard

Economic News
    
USD

The greenback rose all across the board yesterday after the Fed announced new methods to inject liquidity into the financial markets. The US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Canada all announced provisions of additional liquidity in an attempt to once again shore up confidence in the money markets . The greenback drew comfort from this announcement because the Fed's acceptance of mortgage-backed securities could ease some of the problems in the US mortgage market and therefore reduce the risk of a severe US recession. This news also led to speculation that the Fed is more likely to cut the interest by 0.50% next week, instead of the more aggressive 0.75% which was expected previously. Therefore the market reacted to the lower probability of an aggressive move by the Fed next week and risk appetite was partially restored among investors causing the dollar to soar against the low yielding JPY. The greenback also managed to reverse the EUR's bullish surge, gaining back a lot of lost ground. There was more positive news for the greenback yesterday as the U.S Trade deficit increased to $58.2 B, instead of the forecasted $59.5 B. This gave investors another strong indication that the weak dollar is managing to significantly boost exports, which will in-turn stimulate growth. Many analysts believe that yesterday's dollar rally will be short lived as the market will come to the realization that the Fed's new measurement of liquidity injection does not solve the problems of the of a weak housing market, a capital deficient financial system and deteriorating corporate credit quality. U.S stocks also surged yesterday as the DJIA gained almost 300 points after the Fed said it will expand its securities lending program to loan up to $200 billion Treasury securities under a new Term Securities Lending Facility. Looking ahead to today, the only significant news expected from the U.S will be Crude Oil Inventories which measures the weekly increase in barrels of commercial crude oil held in inventory by U.S firms. At the moment crude oil is trading near all time highs so investors will be closely monitoring this data because the level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation and other economic forces. Today the greenback may give up some of its gains as the market digests yesterday's Fed announcement. However the greenback may rally again leading up too next week's rate cut as the market is now expecting less aggressiveness from the Fed.

EUR

The EUR retreated from its all time high against the greenback yesterday on the back of the Fed announcement of its new measurements to inject funds into the money market. However there was positive news for the EUR yesterday, which pushed the EUR to a new record high, as both the German and Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment surprised on the upside. Analysts believe that the firmer-than-expected reading indicates that investors in the German economy are becoming slightly more optimistic that they can avoid the worst of the fallout from the US slowdown. Nevertheless, this positive data which pushed the EUR upward was not enough to cushion the EUR's fall against the greenback. Also earlier ECB Member Weber hinted in a statement that the ECB was not in a position to lower interest rates due to the rising German inflation fears. The ECB has kept its key benchmark rate unchanged at 4.00% since the credit crisis erupted and it has since then stressed that inflation remains its primary concern. However the strong EUR should dampen exports which will slowdown growth and place the ECB under pressure to lower rates. Nevertheless, the central bank remains optimistic as 50% of European exports are within the EU and so far economic indicators have not shown any clear signals of a significant slowdown. The EUR will remain resilient due to improved German GDP expectations and it should resume its bullish movement against the greenback after yesterday's sharp fall.

JPY

The JPY slipped all across the board yesterday, in particular against the high yielders and coming off an eight-year high against the dollar as a sharp rally in U.S. stocks encouraged investors to re-enter risky carry trades funded by cheap borrowing in the Japanese currency. U.S stocks leaped upwards yesterday and the DJIA gained nearly 300 points after the Federal Reserve said it will expand its securities lending program to loan up to $200 billion of Treasury securities. The Fed also said it will lend the Treasuries for 28 days instead of overnight and will increase currency swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. If the freshly surfaced “risk appetite” among investors is able to hold out as the market digest yesterday's news, then the JPY will continue to depreciate at rather rapid rate. However most analysts believe that the rally in U.S stocks will be short lived as yesterday's Fed announcement is still not a solution for the deteriorating housing market. Therefore the JPY should begin to claw back some lost ground today as the market comes to this realization and carry trades ease off.


Technical News
   
EUR/USD

The pair has been quite choppy in the past two days yet no clear direction was seen. The daily chart is showing moderate bearish signals as the 4 hour chart is still quite bullish. The very wide doji formation on the daily chart indicates that a break might be imminent, so traders are advised to wait for the breach and swing.

GBP/USD

The cable is showing strong bullish momentum on the daily chart and on the 4 hour chart with plenty of room to run. The hourly is showing a moderate bearish signal which might make it wise for Forex traders to buy on dips. Next target price might be 2.0210.

USD/JPY
   
After bottoming at 101.50 and bouncing back to 103.00, the pair is resuming the bearish movement. The slow stochastic of the 4 hour chart is showing a strong bearish cross, and it looks as if the strong support of 101.50 might be breached before the weekend.

USD/CHF

There was a short bullish corrective move after the very strong bearish trend, as the pair now appears to ct be consolidating around 1.0300. The 4 hour chart is showing a bearish cross, and with a very bearish daily chart, the right direction appears to be down.


The Wild Card

Gold

The ongoing bullish bonanza continues with no indication of a stop. All oscillators on all time scales are showing one unified bullish direction. Forex Traders are advised to use that strong bullish momentum and swing into the most current lucrative trend in the Forex market.

Published on  Wed, Mar 12 2008, 15:39 GMT