Technical Analysis

EUR/USD

EURUSD

EUR/USD tests the monthly R1 and weekly R2 at 1.3115

“Things seem to be improving quite rapidly in Europe. Spain is now injecting funds to its banks, which were at the heart of the problems. Greece looks on its way to secure funding. The crisis appears to be heading for an end for now“

- Shinsei Bank (based on Reuters)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    EUR/USD pair continues to appreciate and today reached the key resistance level at 1.3115/21, where the monthly R1 and weekly R2 intersect with the upper Bollinger band. The price increases for a sixth consecutive trading session and reached a seven-week high. Together with it the RSI has value of 73, indicating that the currency couple is overbought.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    SWFX market participants are in the bearish mood, as 58% of traders have short positions and 42% have long positions. Pending orders segment still maintains bullish sentiments, as 60% of placed orders are buy and 40% are sell.

GBP/USD

GBPUSD

GBP/USD retests the weekly R2 at 1.6115

“Sterling looks fully valued up at these levels unless we see further topside impetus given by the services PMI on Wednesday”

- CIBC World Markets (based on Reuters)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    GBP/USD pair moved lazily yesterday and attempted to breach the weekly R2 level at 1.6115, but was pushed back. Today, the price steps higher and is already retesting this level. The next resistance area is at 1.6165/81, where the monthly R1 and weekly R3 merge with a downside trend-line. Also the RSI has a value of 65, being very close to an overbought zone.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    GBP/USD pair faces a disproportion in bulls and bears distribution, as the buy side controls only 25% and the sell side 75%. Placed orders segment is almost neutral, as 49% are buy and 51% are sell pending positions.

USD/JPY

USDJPY

USD/JPY breaches the weekly PP at 82.30 again

“We took action in September and October because what we thought were risks back in the summer materialized. We must debate and consider whether that was enough, taking into account various data which came out since then”

- Kiyohiko Nishimura, The Bank of Japan (based on Reuters)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    Last few days losses in USD/JPY pair are almost erased, as the pair surged tonight from the lower Bollinger band and is currently retesting the weekly PP at 82.30. The price has not broken neither the last high nor the last low, so it is possible to see a symmetrical triangle and trade from its boundaries.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    SWFX market players expect to see weaker Yen, as 69% of traders have long positions of USD/JPY pair and 31% have short positions. Placed orders market slowly returns towards a balance, as buy orders share shrunk till 86% and sell share reached 14%.

USD/CHF

USDCHF

USD/CHF consolidates below an up-trend line

“Investors everywhere are focused on what is happening here related to the 'fiscal cliff' and the risk that nothing will happen”

- Dudack Research Group (based on Reuters)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    Despite the fact that USD/CHF pair broke an up-trend line at 0.9274, it still faces difficulties to slip lower. The price retests the up-trend line from the bottom for the third day that seems to be a consolidation before a high timeframe impulse. Thus, it is risky to open a position now, and it would be rational to wait for the first movements and a more defined market direction.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    Bearishness of SWFX market sentiments in USD/CHF pair strengthens, as the buy side reduced to 41% and the sell side expanded till 59%. Pending orders segment is totally opposite, as 60% placed orders are buy and 40% are sell.