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Daily Forex Outlook

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Big pull back in Global stocks

Fri, Nov 20 2009, 02:26 GMT
by Easy Forex Team

Easy Forex

Big pull back in Global stocks

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was very strong for most of the day as stocks around the world suffered from heavy profit taking and concerns of new bubbles in assets. Weekly Jobless claims were at forecasts of 505k whilst the November Philly Fed was stronger at 16 vs. 11.5 previously. In US Stocks, DJIA -93 points closing at 10332, S&P -15 points closing at 1094 and NASDAQ -36 points closing at 2156.

The Euro (EUR) was very heavy as USD strength and EUR/JPY selling that continued for much of the day. A slight reprieve at the end of the US session allowed the pair to reclaim the 1.4900 level. A much touted 1.48-1.51 DNT option is though to expire today which could allow for a break of the recent range next week. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4842 and a high of 1.4958 before closing at 1.4900. Looking ahead, October German PPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.5% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the strongest currency yesterday on risk aversion demand. Liquidation of AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY guided the USD/JPY below 89 Yen. Stock markets and US bond yields are the main factors affecting the Yen at the moment. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.63 and a high of 89.46 before closing the day around 88.95 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ meeting today.

The Sterling (GBP) was under pressure on most pairs as the risk sensitive currency struggled in a souring global market. Oil was under pressure and continued bad press about UK banks weighed on the Pound. October Retail Sales were at 0.4% vs. 0.5% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6604 and a high of 1.6744 before closing the day at 1.6640 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) slumped for the second day as traders booked profit from the recent rally and commodities apart were very weak. AUD/JPY selling and a mixed technical outlook are beginning to weigh although should sentiment improve the Aussie is prone to bounce first. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9130 and a high of 0.9285 before closing the US session at 0.9180.

Oil & Gold (XAU) held up well as safe haven flows offset gains in the USD. Overall trading with a low of USD$1130 and high of USD$1146 before ending the New York session at USD$1141 an ounce. Weakened as investor sentiment turned 'risk off'. Crude Oil was down -$2.12 ending the New York session at $77.46.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4920

Initial support at 1.4808 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5016 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high)

Yen – 89.00

Initial support is located at 88.64 (Nov 19 low) followed by 88.36 (Oct 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.75 (Nov 16 high) followed by 90.60 (Nov 16 high).

Pound – 1.6640

Initial support at 1.6572 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1.6516 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6878 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9180

Initial support at 0.9092 (Nov 6 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9337 (Nov 18 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).

Gold – 1141

Initial support at 1127 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1118 (Nov 16 high). Initial resistance is now at 1152 (Nov 18 high) followed by 1165 (1.618 of 985 - 1070.80 from 1026.60).

Oil – 78.30

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high).

Published on  Fri, Nov 20 2009, 02:26 GMT