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Commitment of Trader Report

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Data and Analysis for Most Recent Release, October 10 2009

Mon, Oct 12 2009, 05:41 GMT
by Ralph Shell

ForexRazor

Legend: Net Long  Net Short  Position Change

Overview: The open interest in all contracts went up during the past week by a total of 56,582 contracts. The biggest increase was in the CAD, followed by the pound. Activity in both the Cad and the pound was the large spec, buying the loonie and selling the pound.
The total spec short USD and long something else is now 255,576 contracts. The spec, especially the large spec, has aggressively sold the pound futures, which by default means he is long the dollar. If we exclude the pound positions, that means the dollar short in the remaining 7 contracts balloons to 326,852 contracts. Small specs can be a flighty bunch, and are often the quickest to flee markets if they sense adverse conditions. This week, the biggest spec positions as a percentage of the relative market is in the Euro, followed by the CAD, and then the Swissie, all of course longs. The large spec continues to buy the Swiss franc, but the small spec liquidated a small part of his position. Interest in the perceived commodity based currencies continues and the OI keeps growing.

Analysis: There was not a lot of change in commitments during the period with most participants merely holding positions. Large specs are almost 4 to 1 long the yen and the commercial is a 3 to 1 short. Small specs did increase their modest long.

Analysis: The OI increased almost 9% for the period with the large specs on the buy side. They are now a 6.6 to 1 long. The small spec likewise is an unbalanced long while the commercial is a 11.9 to 1 short. Small specs compose a very large % of the OI.

Analysis: There was a 19% increases in the OI with the large spec aggressively accumulating longs, and are now a 7 to 1 long. Small spec likewise flocked to the long side and now are a 2 to 1 long, and are big participants in this market. Commercials, about 20 of them, increased shorts and modestly reduced their longs.

Analysis: Eighteen large specs dominate this market  with a long of almost 80% of the total OI. Small specs, almost a 3 to 1 long pealed out of some of their positions. Commercials are short almost 90% of the total market.

Analysis: The large  specs added to their longs and the commercials added to their shorts, though the commercials were also the largest buyers during the period. There are 13 large commercials short 80% of the market. Small specs are a 2.5 to 1 long the Aussie but were net sellers of over 1400 contracts during the period.

Published on  Mon, Oct 12 2009, 11:58 GMT