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DXY maintains wedge support, key Fib

Fri, Oct 16 2009, 08:40 GMT
by Peter Ruud

Informa Global Markets


The US Dollar Index continues to maintain support at a wedge trendline and at a key Fibonacci retracement (78.6% of July 08 to March 09 range) just below 75.50. A strong close (for Friday) is now necessary to round-up daily RSI & MACD to confirm bullish divergence. The resistant 10-day MA will be the key test to determine whether the Greenback can recover. Failure to reclaim this fast, yet important moving average will likely leave the DXY susceptible to a capitulation-type sell-off. The EUR/USD is in a similar position. Recent strength is now probing a wedge trendline at similar resistance levels seen two years ago during the last bull campaign. Below rising 10-day MA support will confirm bearish divergence and signal a broader correction.

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