http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-11-18.htmlMarket Outlook: A rebound in risk appetite from a late October wobble has set the stage for the remainder of Q4. An eight-point drop in the VIX along with the G20’s omission of currency commentary in the 7th November statement along with a clutch of strong Chinese economic data cleared the way for a resumption of pro-risk strategies, squeezing the USD index below 75.0 - our medium term target. Over the coming week, we favour long JPY and short EUR strategies ahead of US President Obama’s visitWed, 18 Nov 2009 11:46:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-11-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-11-02.htmlMarket Outlook The biggest week of Q4 and anticipation of choppy trading conditions has already been translated in a substantial mark-up in volatility, but the worsening in US confidence data is a new trading theme that may receive more prominence depending how the ISM surveys pan out. The partial withdrawal from risk assets has been replaced by a flight-to-safety of the USD and JPY. Though safe haven flows could gain in popularity if ISM and PMI data disappoint and faltering equities forceMon, 02 Nov 2009 07:04:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-10-23.htmlMarket Outlook GBP has been the star performer this week as short covering and speculation of a pause in QE by the BoE have helped sterling to catch up with other pro-risk currencies. The rally in GBP spot has been accompanied by a spike in short dated volatility and a jump in GBP risk reversals to a two-month high. We believe market conditions are likely to stay choppy over the coming weeks with GBP crosses subject to two-way volatility as uncertainty reigns over what the MPC will decide onFri, 23 Oct 2009 14:08:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-10-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-10-16.htmlMacro Outlook USD weakness is still a dominant theme alongside the rally in the commodity and high yield currencies. Optimism surrounding US company earnings and widening interest rate differentials are playing a key part in the USD slide and with the Fed pledging to keep interest rates low, we see no prospect for a major reversal of bearish USD trend. For GBP, the jump in net short positions to the highest level since 1992 was proof of heavily oversold conditions. The subsequent short squeezeFri, 16 Oct 2009 10:50:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-09-17.htmlMacro Outlook A stalling in equity and bond market rallies may shake up some of the principal drivers for currency markets. The market is likely to shift its focus to the US Q3 earnings season and the potential for the G20 to begin discussions regarding the unwind of emergency stimulus and liquidity programmes. Our main pointers over the week ahead are the Fed meeting and the BoE MPC minutes. Mindful of the less downbeat but discounted economic backdrop and of the ongoing frailties in the USThu, 17 Sep 2009 09:14:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-09-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-09-11.htmlMacro Outlook The end of the US Labour Day weekend is traditionally marked by improved liquidity and has regularly been associated with increased periods of volatility and swings in risk appetite across major asset markets. For currencies, the start of September has been characterised by a step-up in USD aversion, but the underperformance of GBP points to some stress points among G10 currencies. Central bank meetings could play a key role over the coming weeks and the G20 meeting of heads ofFri, 11 Sep 2009 12:44:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-09-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-05-13.htmlMarket overview As the market picks on the underlying bullish themes that have been building over the past few months the natural inclination is to be wary. In the last release, the favoured currencies were Sterling and the commodity currencies against the US dollar coupled with the more benign environment that a drop in volatility would imply. Whilst from an equity perspective a consolidation/ corrective phase is becoming more compelling, the strength in commodities still underpins theWed, 13 May 2009 07:17:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-04-29.htmlMarket overview The underlying pro risk theme remains the preferred strategy as the markets continue to recover from oversold levels. Despite this, a consolidation phase is warranted at current levels and given the extent of the recovery short term retracements should be expected. Whilst the long term outlook continues to favour a cautious approach, support should remain for Asian equity markets and although core markets could under perform, the synchronicity of these trends should ensureWed, 29 Apr 2009 06:13:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-04-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-04-23.htmlMarket overview The key driver of FX continues to be asset market sentiment and the on going prospects for equity markets. Understandably, participants are anxious to know whether the ultimate low in equities has been hit, implying positive prospects for pro-cyclical currencies. The answer comes down to timing once again. The primary trend for now is assumed to be downwards, but this does not preclude periods of equity gains. These gains, even in servere bear markets, can be substantial andThu, 23 Apr 2009 06:07:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-04-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-04-08.htmlMarket overview The coming weeks look set for a range-bound market. A few weeks ago, I suggested that FX volatility was too high and could even trade in single digits by May when looking at one month Euro dollar vol (below). This has favoured an oversold bounce in sterling and is likely to continue for now against selective currencies. Whilst the dollar may well weaken further in the medium term, the 'grand sell off' for the dollar remains a long term story (as proposed in the last release).Wed, 08 Apr 2009 06:39:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-04-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-03-25.htmlMarket overview A question that will be in the forefront of traders' minds over the coming weeks will be; has the dollar bear trend started? Both inflation and a weak dollar are expected to be developing themes, but whether we are at the start of the trend looks open to debate. Whilst I do expect commodities to trend higher, yields to rise and the dollar to sell off, the most important issue here is timing. This means that either your investment outlook has to be very long term (over threeWed, 25 Mar 2009 12:30:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-03-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-03-12.htmlMarket overview The short term market orientation does not seem ready to change. This is hardly surprising given the journey the markets have travelled over the past 18 months. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the price of risk is simply too high and by virtue of this situation, it is discouraging risk appetite. If the market has a heightened expectation of a risky environment, then there is no value in paying for this. The value comes from looking at what the market does notThu, 12 Mar 2009 06:19:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-03-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-02-26.htmlMarket overview It's pretty clear that if the FX /equity market correlation was even slightly behaving then euro yen would be trading sub 110.00 and cable around 1.3500. Whilst on a pure price basis equities have been a sell, the reverse has been true of dollar yen with both positions causing sentiment to be cautious as the market stretches the inverse correlation. It could be argued that sterling's resilence in the face of equity market weakness represents accumulation with the reverse trueThu, 26 Feb 2009 05:48:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-02-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-02-12.htmlMarket overview The 'ultra-cyclical' sterling has had more than a decent bounce as conditions pointed to an oversold currency. The main question from here is can it continue to rally? Whilst sterling is experiencing a corrective retracement at the time of writing, the overall bias remains positive. The reason for this lies in the firmness of bond yields, the bid nature of commodities and the extending rally in Chinese equities. As long as these factors continue on the current trajectory, theThu, 12 Feb 2009 06:17:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-02-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-02-18.htmlMarket overview The euro is under increasing pressure. The past few months have seen equities range trading and, although there have been positive signs to note, the equity markets continue to look vulnerable to further falls. With major supports approaching, the risk is developing for a breakout trade to the downside. DAX futures have managed to recover three times from 4066 support, however this coming fourth test does does not look likely to hold. Hopefully I am wrong and this is simply aWed, 18 Feb 2009 06:14:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-02-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-02-05.htmlMarket overview This old market saying has relevance to the current position of the financial markets and particularly sterling. Last year the equity markets plunged and bonds yields were pushed to wafer thin levels as the market was preoccupied with survival and protection of capital. Whilst this is understandable from a short term scenario, the next few months will be important to see if that capital would be better rewarded elsewhere. The current indications paint a more positive picture,Thu, 05 Feb 2009 06:00:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-02-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-01-29.htmlMarket overview As we near the end of the first month of trading, volatility has remained elevated and sterling has enjoyed (if that is the right word) the majority of this. The recent bearish press was recognised by a few experienced contrary traders that a rally was close, but the timing was open to question. Having seen the initial boost, the question is do we fade the rally or go with it? It is premature to think sterling has long term upward potential against the dollar, but it shouldThu, 29 Jan 2009 06:29:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-01-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-01-15.htmlMarket overview The first two weeks of the new year are usually a good period to avoid from a trading perspective, but once again the market has managed to deliver in excess of a month's worth of price action in just a few trading days. Whilst it is generally acknowledged that volumes are thin, those that have kept their powder dry will hopefully be encouraged into the market in the coming trading sessions. As volume starts to increase, dollar weakness is the expected prevailing theme. TheThu, 15 Jan 2009 11:38:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-01-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-01-09.htmlMarket overview The past month has seen some exceptional moves in the FX markets and although we are only in the first few days of 2009, the volatility continues unabated. Two major underlying themes that continue to build are the prospect for a base in equities (whether this is long term is open to debate) and the gradual reversal of commodities. Whilst a month ago, commodity buying was limited to gold and selective softs (and a bullish view met with derision), it has since broadened to baseFri, 09 Jan 2009 08:24:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-01-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-12-10.htmlMarket overview The bullish dollar scenario has weakened. Whilst a major sell signal at has not yet ocurred, the evidence is shifting towards a weaker dollar. As market volumes continue to thin and intermarket relationships (equities and the yen) diverge, the normal clues to the next big move are less reliable. Perhaps this is a message that this historic year will close with a drop in volatility and range as a contrast to the price action for the rest of the year. However, thin markets areWed, 10 Dec 2008 11:56:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-12-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-12-04.htmlMarket overview At the end of last week there was a sense of cautious optimism as euro dollar had failed to breach key support at 1.2400 and was travelling in the opposite direction. Equities appeared to be finding a floor with the Dow putting some distance between the 7450 intra day low and S&Ps nudging 900 once again. Even commodities had given some positive signals with gold extending gains above $800 and cocoa and cotton pushing higher. Typically of the current market environmentThu, 04 Dec 2008 07:44:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-12-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-11-26.htmlMarket overview Has the dollar trend turned? Whilst this is a difficult question to answer, the evidence has swung away from extended dollar strength to cautious dollar weakness. Despite many opportunities to break the low, euro dollar failed to extend beyond the 1.2330/90 floor last week and this lack of follow through has caused selling of stale dollar longs. Naturally the markets are very short term focused, but with gold over $800, and silver and platinum finally trying to base (althoughWed, 26 Nov 2008 06:50:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-11-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-11-19.htmlMarket overview As volatility remains exceptionally high, the current strategy continues to be cautious and flexible. From a trend perspective, it is suspicious that the euro dollar has failed to extend below 1.2332 given the external opportunities for this to occur (weaker equities, persistently soft commodities). However, the bias for the moment favours this scenario for a test of 1.2135. This could be an important week for this trend. Failure to break lower will encourage some reduction inWed, 19 Nov 2008 06:41:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-11-06.htmlMarket overview Anyone who began trading for the first time over the past 12 months will have witnessed an unprecedented period of market volatility with all asset classes having massive swings. Normally traders atune themselves to the market conditions relatively quickly, but if you have cut your teeth in this market environment, then it may be very difficult to adapt to what could be a significant drop in volatility over the coming weeks. Naturally, flexibility is key. The expression 'neverThu, 06 Nov 2008 12:43:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-11-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-10-24.htmlMarket overview Clearly the current market developments are favouring the yen. The equity markets remain vulnerable and the downside could well be accelerated by continued commodity price drops. The deflationary effects of the drop in soft commodities, base metals and particularly oil have also played into the dollar's hand (although the yen is still outperforming and will continue to do so). However, the long term effects of these moves will be unwound as aggressively (perhaps even more so)Fri, 24 Oct 2008 06:17:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-10-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-10-15.htmlMarket overview Last week saw the end of an historic chapter in financial markets. With the equity markets in a climatic selling mode, the indications are for a medium term recovery for equities. However, it is unlikely to represent the end of the longer term bear market. Given this scenario, a recovery in oil and soft commodities should be expected, although a short term range whilst the market forms a base can not be ruled out. This also suggests a recovery in the stricken emerging marketWed, 15 Oct 2008 10:34:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-09-25.htmlMarket overview In last week's release the question was asked: is the US dollar bull trend over? The expectation was that we would see confirmation over the following weeks in the form of a broader decline, following in the tracks of the dollar yen. It may have seemed like a minor point that the dollar, during its bull phase, did not appreciate against the yen, but this was important to underlying structure of the market's positioning. In other words it showed the dollar was not in a primaryThu, 25 Sep 2008 06:47:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-09-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-09-17.htmlMarket overview Is the dollar bullish trend over? This certainly has become a more pertinent question of late and as the Swiss franc tentatively joins the yen in pressuring the dollar, the potential for a broader dollar correction starts to look likely. There are still some flies in the ointment however. Whilst gold has found some support, platinum and paladium continue to decline with soft commodities yet to find any significant support so far. In support of the bearish dollar scenario, USWed, 17 Sep 2008 05:50:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-09-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-09-03.htmlMarket overview The trend for the dollar continues to push higher, but despite this scenario it should be noted that the yen has been the stronger of the two currencies and in technical terms this does suggest non-confirmation of a dollar bull market. Clearly the dollar has pushed higher against it's major counterparts with sterling and the commodity based currencies taking the full brunt of the correction. However it still remains a fact that dollar yen topped out over 110.60, thereforeWed, 03 Sep 2008 11:30:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-09-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-08-20.htmlMarket overview In last week's release, we discussed the potential for extended short strength for the US dollar, although the context for this remains against a long term bear market. Given the speed of the market's move, the potential for an overshoot is large and picking exact levels for a turnaround becomes more problematic. However, the targets for euro dollar were at 1.4722 and whilst the squeeze continues, it is difficult to stand in the way of dollar strength and an extended move intoWed, 20 Aug 2008 08:54:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-08-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-08-13.htmlMarket overview The potential for an aggressive dollar rally was discussed in last week's release. The speed and extent of the markets' move are not surprising considering the number of technical levels aligned in close proximity. The broadness of the dollar rally from core to emerging markets implied a major unwinding of short positions and was mirrored by the technical set-ups in precious metals. The main question now is: do we fade this move or is there more to come? The answer to bothWed, 13 Aug 2008 06:07:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-08-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-08-06.htmlMarket overview Although the major currency markets are still broadly range bound and the summer trading conditions are still apparent, the clear technical set-ups in both precious metals and soft commodities continue to underpin a medium term recovery for the dollar. The price of platinum has dropped aggressively, which has led the way for gold and if the $850 level is breached, the implications are for $720. This is mirrored in the soft commodity markets which has caused a magnified impactWed, 06 Aug 2008 08:22:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-08-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-07-24.htmlMarket overview A day is a long time in the FX markets. Sometimes because nothing is happening and it feels like a week, others because sentiment can turn on a cent. At the start of the week it seemed clear that the dollar was building for another break into lows, but no less than a day later, equities are rallying, gold has dropped (led through platinum) and oil ignored a raft of bullish news to complete an interim top. Soft commodities continue to retrace and all of a sudden the marketThu, 24 Jul 2008 07:00:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-07-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-07-17.htmlMarket overview At the time of writing the dollar has moved into the anticipated break-out strategy with the favoured yen and swiss franc appreciating towards long term targets at 100 and parity respectively. The broad appreciation of the yen is interesting as it plays catch up to the activity in the equity markets. The 'break-down' of the correlation in the yen and vix index was discussed in last week's release with the conclusion that a sharp yen correction was likely. This has led to euroThu, 17 Jul 2008 12:44:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-07-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-07-09.htmlMarket overview The anticipated euro dollar break out wasn't to be and the market has dropped back into the centre of a range. Whilst the dollar bear story has clearly weakened in the short term, the risk over the long term remains to the downside and, after what could be another fortnight of range bound price action, a break-out should be forthcoming. Interestingly, despite the drop in equities, precious metals have remained range-bound and traction in the yen has been very limited. WhilstWed, 09 Jul 2008 12:05:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-07-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-07-02.htmlMarket overview In the last release, the discussion centred on the prospects that the dollar bear trend was close to resuming. Whilst a straight line move may not be forthcoming due to the current market environment, the risk for dollar swiss to hit parity and and euro dollar to break through 1.60 remains. Although it's a familar argument, the technical trends in commodities remain strong and the precious metals market looks set to eject from the broad ranges to the upside. This furtherWed, 02 Jul 2008 11:37:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-07-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-06-20.htmlMarket overview Since the last release the markets have been broadly range bound, although from an intra-day perspective volatility has been high. Unfortunately this type of price action has the effect of keeping market participants sidelined until clearer signals appear on the daily and weekly charts. The intermediate strategy has been to buy sterling and the dollar against the previously strong currencies, i.e the Swiss franc, yen and euro, looking for a counter-trend retracement. WhilstFri, 20 Jun 2008 09:57:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-06-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-06-06.htmlMarket overview The cat is out of the bag as far as the bullish dollar and sterling strategy is concerned against the yen, swiss franc and euro. With the markets in consolidation mode and unwilling to chase the dollar higher short term, a retracement/consolidation phase could be in order. It is even tempting to completely reverse the dollar bull strategy at this juncture purely on the rebound in commodities, but although gold has rebounded from the key $850 level, it remains off the recentFri, 06 Jun 2008 13:06:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-06-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-05-08.htmlMarket overview The cat is out of the bag as far as the bullish dollar and sterling strategy is concerned against the yen, swiss franc and euro. With the markets in consolidation mode and unwilling to chase the dollar higher short term, a retracement/consolidation phase could be in order. It is even tempting to completely reverse the dollar bull strategy at this juncture purely on the rebound in commodities, but although gold has rebounded from the key $850 level, it remains off the recentThu, 08 May 2008 06:15:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-05-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-04-30.htmlMarket overview The bullish dollar and sterling scenarios discussed over the past few weeks continue as the inversion of market trends cascade the financial markets. As the broader market latches on to the prospects for a sterling and dollar to recovery, a cautious approach has to be maintained in the very near term. However, the orignal signals that implied a recovery was imminent remain broadly in place. The final piece of the jigsaw discussed in last week's document was the potential for aWed, 30 Apr 2008 11:32:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2008-04-30.html