http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-11-17.htmlMarket Outlook => Irish question remains centre stage for EUR => UK data and minutes this week may threaten positive GBP tone Rumours continue to fly around about the possibility of Ireland seeking aid from Europe, and many are speculating that something will emerge from the Euro-area finance ministers meeting on Tuesday, if not over the weekend. But the situation is hard to judge. While yield spreads have widened dramatically in the last couple of weeks, this is of little currentWed, 17 Nov 2010 05:17:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-11-09.htmlMarket Outlook => Pro-risk currencies unfazed by EU periphery troubles; focus on G20 => BoE QIR to test sterling resilience A quiet data and event calendar means the dust should settle somewhat over global asset markets over the coming week, allowing investors to catch their breath and consider what will influence financial markets over the closing weeks of 2010. Risk appetite received a shot in the arm from the $600bln Fed Treasury purchase programme and this largely managed toTue, 09 Nov 2010 05:07:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-11-02.htmlMarket Outlook => USD: FOMC likely to trigger initial further USD weakness => GBPUSD has scope above 1.60 unless PMIs disappoint There is potential for this to be a momentous week in the markets, with the FOMC decision on Wednesday the primary focus, but plenty of other potentially market significant events through the week. At the FOMC meeting the funds rate target will be left unchanged, but the Fed is expected to outline another tranche of quantitative easing in an attempt to provideTue, 02 Nov 2010 05:24:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-10-26.htmlMarket Outlook => GBP: prel Q3 GDP to seal Nov MPC QE vote? => AUD vs CAD: correlation switches The preference of investors to buy USD/G10 on dips ahead of the G20 meeting following supportive comments by US Treas Sec Geithner indicates that the phase of USD weakness may at least be temporarily exhausted. Having said that, currencies remain in a state of flux and USD selling may well still be the preferred course of action if central bank discussions this weekend come to nothing andTue, 26 Oct 2010 05:13:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-10-18.htmlMarket Outlook => USD priced for QE2 after Bernanke, pro-risk flows weigh => GBP: MPC minutes ahead, policy bias still neutral? Fed chairman Bernanke implicitly admitted in his Boston speech that the Fed was likely to push ahead with more QE on Nov 3 as risks of deflation are currently “higher than desirable”. The limited scope for US short end yields to fall suggests that USD downside may now be limited. However, with QE2 now effectively priced in, the risk of a counter trend moveMon, 18 Oct 2010 11:22:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-10-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-10-11.htmlMarket Outlook => US data still support case for QE2 => G7 meeting unlikely to change underlying story of USD weakness The G7 meeting at the weekend will be the main focus for FX markets coming into the week, given all the talk of “currency wars”, the recent BoJ intervention and the comments from Juncker complaining about EUR strength. But it is very hard to see the G7 producing a communique that significantly opposes further USD weakness against the majors, much less coming up withMon, 11 Oct 2010 10:59:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-10-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-10-05.htmlMarket Outlook => Reduction in ECB loans supports EUR rally => AUD expensive, but can still press higher on RBA decision => Sterling to stay weak with the USD as data softens and QE expectations build The US employment Report will be the main focus this week. While we may see a positive number, this is down to census jobs and private sector employment seems likely to be similar to last month, suggesting the data won’t change the underlying weak USD tone, especially since theTue, 05 Oct 2010 06:12:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-09-27.htmlMarket Outlook => Dovish FOMC puts more downward pressure on the USD The FOMC’s hint that more QE may be coming in November sent the USD into a renewed decline against all the traditionally more risky currencies, with the EUR, AUD and Scandis leading the way. It is hard to oppose this trend short term even though the USD is reaching very cheap levels. The USD made a new historic low against the CHF this week, but it seems likely that more risk positive currencies will perform better nextMon, 27 Sep 2010 12:45:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-09-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-09-20.htmlMarket Outlook = USD: relief bounce on FOMC? Intervention by the BoJ and a surprisingly brutal reaction to SNB forecast revisions caused trends to shift in G10 currency markets over the past week and threaten to compound volatility over the coming days as the FOMC meets to discuss monetary policy and in the UK the Sep MPC meeting minutes are published. The USD may be in a win/win position going into the FOMC. If the Fed are downbeat, the USD may benefit from a risk sell off, while if they areMon, 20 Sep 2010 11:07:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-09-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-09-06.htmlMarket Outlook = JPY: heading for BoJ intervention? Resilience in high yield and commodity currencies took us by surprise as demand for risk staged an early September comeback and US payrolls proved better than feared. However, with the outlook for the US not ceasing to cloud over (services ISM, new manufacturing orders) but Washington mulling tax breaks, demand for AUD and NOK will stay sensitive to incoming US data and broader appetite for risk. The week ahead features central bank meetingsMon, 06 Sep 2010 11:04:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-09-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-09-01.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = GBP: selective gains targeted on AUD, CAD underperformance Selling rallies in pro-risk and carry trade strategies is favoured in G10 currency markets and should translate into steady demand for safe haven harbours. We look ahead to next Tuesday when Japanese PM Kan will announce a plan to support the economy and tackle the JPY. With the SNB not explicitly targeting a level for the CHF, we wonder if safe haven dynamics may turn even more overwhelming in favour ofWed, 01 Sep 2010 05:06:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-09-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-08-25.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = EUR/GBP: return to June low? Comments by ECB council member and 2011 candidate president Weber on the possible extension of unlimited liquidity until year-end have not gone unnoticed, casting a shadow of the ST outlook for the EUR. In a market short of liquidity and marked by a retreat of risk, Weber’s comments may hasten the decline in EUR/USD from the August highs. With risk beating a retreat, the success of Japanese officials to temper the decline in USD/JPYWed, 25 Aug 2010 06:09:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-08-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-08-09.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = Risk of snap back in GBP/USD and USD/JPY = Long AUD positions outpace CAD Dollar weakness continues to characterise G10 fx markets as doubts over the US economy multiply and all-time lows for US yields boost the attractiveness of carry. With the Fed running out of policy options and evidence of macro economic decoupling in the G10 prevailing, we look for the AUD to remain a desirable G10 destination. A test of 85.0 in USD/JPY now looks probable. Though next weekMon, 09 Aug 2010 13:33:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-08-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-08-03.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = PMIs to test bullish GBP/USD trend, GBP/CAD target 1.65 Dollar weakness coloured G10 fx markets in July but a stabilisation in speculative positioning begs the question if the currency is due for some reprieve in August. The path to a USD bounce remains uneven at best, but as the tide of positive Q2 corporate earnings subsides and scepticism surrounding EU peripheral spreads lingers, we wonder if safe haven flows could make a surprise return. Dovish statementsTue, 03 Aug 2010 05:45:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-08-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-07-27.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = Carry trade sought A decline in US 3-month libor below 0.50% coupled with solid Q2 company earnings have buoyed demand for carry trade strategies, driving high yielding and commodity currencies through key resistance levels vs the USD. It is debateable how long momentum can be sustained in a context of faltering momentum in the US. The idea that additional policy stimulus by the Fed could be required and would re-flate risk assets appears misplaced whenTue, 27 Jul 2010 05:09:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-07-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-07-13.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = Turning point for the USD? Stronger than forecast employment data from Australia and Canada along with short covering in risk assets boosted the AUD, CAD, NZD and NOK, but doubts over momentum have not disappeared as markets square up to the first reports of US Q2 company earnings. With market positioning still overwhelmingly short EUR, we look for bearish EUR trends eventually to be reasserted on profit taking ahead of July 23, release date of the bank stressTue, 13 Jul 2010 05:23:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-07-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-07-05.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = USD still on the back foot The Swiss franc has replaced the USD as preferred store of refuge in the G10 as the US economy clouds over and global equity benchmarks sink to the lowest levels for the year. With risk aversion stepped up and US short-term yields sinking to new historic lows, we look for the USD to stay under pressure over the coming week and the dollar index to close in on key support in the 83.19 area. The aggressive unwinding of short EUR and GBPMon, 05 Jul 2010 12:33:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-07-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-06-29.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = EUR/CHF hits 1.35 target; JPY back in demand; USD safe haven status falters  The resilience of GBP and stale USD performance vs G10 currencies in a broader context of risk aversion is a new development and will bear close watching over the week ahead as we square up to heightened event risk from the US and the euro zone. Investor scepticism has been underlined by the 40% collapse in the Baltic Dry and a dreadful sequence of US housing data for May, drawingTue, 29 Jun 2010 06:16:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-06-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-06-22.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = buy CHF dips vs EUR, GBP US dollar weakness and Swiss Franc strength translate into an interesting setup heading into the UK Budget, the FOMC and G20 summit next week, and is manifested in USD/G10 crosses approaching potential breakout territory and a rebound in volatility. GBP, NOK, SEK and the CHF all look set to test recent highs as equities negotiate one-month highs Underlying trading themes have not changed and should primarily continue to revolve aroundTue, 22 Jun 2010 05:41:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-06-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-06-15.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = EUR/CHF: lurch lower on SNB liquidity decision? A rally in risk assets was accompanied by a fall in ST volatility this week, boosting demand for AUD, NZD and CAD. A rejection of key resistance targets and a lack of conviction in stocks leaves many participants pondering whether to further reduce risk exposure until clearer trends emerge. The performance of sovereign debt and talk of a yuan reval will dictate near-term direction, though Q2 corporate updates fromTue, 15 Jun 2010 08:38:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-06-01.htmlMarket Outlook Tactical view: = Risk sentiment fragile = Will CAD capitalise on blockbuster NFP gain, BoC rate hike? Risk assets continue to demonstrate very choppy and occasionally counter-intuitive price action, keeping volatility in major G10 crosses above recent norms. US nonfarm payrolls data, consensus +500k, should direct price action next week but with the Fed sidelined, concerns over counterparty risk, liquidity and sovereign debt will again determine appetite for risk strategies. ATue, 01 Jun 2010 10:05:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-06-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-05-24.htmlTactical view: = ‘Risk off’ mode: JPY to extend gains The rotation out of risk (equities, credit, commodities) continues to dictate safe-haven flows into the JPY, and to a lesser extent into the USD. The currency market remains very much agnostic to the macro data flow from the G10, instead putting greater emphasis on the direction of equities, credit and commodities. We look for the sensitivity to risk assets to remain elevated over the week ahead and markets to only pay minor interest toMon, 24 May 2010 10:53:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-05-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-05-17.htmlTactical view: = EUR crosses stay offered; counting on stocks for GBP relief = USD, JPY outperform in risk averse world The USD continues to attract solid buying interest as confidence in the EUR and GBP wanes. With risk reversals still heavily skewed towards USD calls, the outlook for the dollar index remains uniformly bullish even as the probability of a Fed rate hike this year fades. Economic data has been playing second fiddle in recent weeks and until the picture for risk assets clears upMon, 17 May 2010 10:31:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-05-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-05-10.htmlTactical view: = Buy GBP dip on relief bounce in stocks, BoE QIR = New trading range for EUR crosses A breakdown in equities played out negatively for GBP considering the elevated correlation with stocks. With no clear indication on what political Parties will form the next government, we adopt a cautious stance and are reluctant to buy GBP on dips. The dark clouds hovering over equities add to the uncertain outlook and may keep GBP on the defensive near-term vs the G10 until risk appetiteMon, 10 May 2010 08:22:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-05-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-05-04.htmlTactical view: = buy GBP vs G10 on Conservative or Conservatve/Lib Dem election victory = fade AUD on RBA 25bp hike/neutral statement = sell EUR/USD rally on EU/IMF loan relief Short speculative GBP positions have been cut back over the last four weeks, but overall are still well above historical norms. This leaves scope for an (extensive) short squeeze if the Labour party is defeated next week Thursday, with the biggest move potentially earmarked for GBP/JPY depending on equity marketTue, 04 May 2010 10:56:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-05-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-04-26.htmlThe dollar index recovered all of its early April losses this week, clawing its way back up over 82.0. We look for the index to stay supported near term, possibly aided by the FOMC next week. Though the words ‘extended period’ should stay in the FOMC statement next Wednesday, a more upbeat read on the economy and possible commentary on the timing of asset sales could bolster dollar sentiment. GBP crosses continue to trade quite well this month, shrugging off concerns of a hung Parliament andMon, 26 Apr 2010 11:26:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-04-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-04-19.htmlMarket Outlook A tumultuous end to the week saw equity indices retreat from 18-month highs, with profit taking in commodity and high yield currencies triggering safe-haven flows into the JPY. As we look ahead to next week, the prospect of participants re-entering long risk strategies at more attractive levels will be considered following an early run of positive Q1 results and bullish business guidance from US industry bellwethers, and a steady outlook for low interest rates in the G7. For theMon, 19 Apr 2010 08:22:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-04-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-04-12.htmlMarket Outlook A strong bid in commodity prices, low volatility and optimism over the global economic recovery added fuel to the rally in risk assets this week resulting in a good overall performance for the AUD and NZD. The start of US Q1 reporting season, speculation of a currency shift in China and the possible activation of an EU rescue for Greece are set to take centre stage next week. EU intervention in Greece, with the IMF as a key funding partner, may soon be a fait accompli after theMon, 12 Apr 2010 11:56:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-04-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-29.htmlDisappointing US treasury auctions and widening US/G10 yields differentials have given currency markets something to think about as we approach the end of Q1 and look ahead to the trading themes for Q2. Our two-week view calls for the dollar index to stay well supported, bolstered by a return to positive US employment growth in March. We hold out for a move up to 83.0 if next week Friday’s payrolls data come in roughly in line with the consensus forecast of 187,000. Though the Fed reiteratesMon, 29 Mar 2010 11:32:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-22.htmlRumours of a hike in the US discount rate on Thursday proved unfounded but served as the starting shot of a rally in the dollar index, with monetary tightening in India on Friday triggering subsequent profit taking in commodity currencies. Accompanied by the increased aversion for EUR and GBP, the stage looks set for the dollar index to test the upper end of the trading range over the week ahead. Long high yield and commodity currency strategies have been crowded but understandably continue toMon, 22 Mar 2010 11:20:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-15.htmlRising inflation expectations in the UK and confirmation that the Budget will be held on March 24 means GBP shorts may be forced to cover positions as government leaks emerge over the next two weeks of UK deficit reduction plans. Ultra-loose monetary policy in the G7 and positive economic data surprises in the G10 are lubricating pro-risk strategies, with higher oil and equity prices supporting rallies, notably for the CAD where strong employment data may force the Bank of Canada to raiseMon, 15 Mar 2010 11:13:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-08.htmlBetter than feared US employment data for February accompanied by new liquidity measures in Japan to combat deflationary pressures has reestablished a bid for pro-risk strategies, with a return of JPY led carry trades being touted. A bullish technical set-up for risk assets and commodities, characterized by a move through 5,600 for the FTSE100 and crude oil through $81pb, favours long AUD, CAD, SEK vs JPY strategies over the week ahead. GBP and EUR on the other hand continue to suffer from aMon, 08 Mar 2010 11:10:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-02.htmlIt takes a brave investor to bet against further downside in GBP/G10 crosses following the brutal sell-off and speedy decline through key technical levels over the last three trading sessions. We remain medium-term USD bulls and GBP bears, but ask whether the lurch lower in EUR/USD is overdone. The threat of a sharp rebound in the US unemployment rate above 10% in February could result in the unwinding of post discount rate hike USD gains, with the EUR separately standing to benefit from aTue, 02 Mar 2010 06:38:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-03-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-02-22.htmlThe risk of a double dip recession in the UK reared its head this week, with the biggest rise in unemployment in 6 months and steepest drop in retail sales in 11 months underlining the historical tendency of the economy to slow ahead of a General Election. Whilst weak data were repeatedly met by GBP selling, the bigger danger for a negative GBP spiral is associated with the gilt market. In contrast to sterling, negative news on the economy is no longer greeted by a safe haven bid and lowerMon, 22 Feb 2010 13:21:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-02-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-02-15.htmlRisk aversion remains very much on the forefront of global currency markets, with sovereign debt jitters and actions/roadmaps to normalise monetary policy in China and G-3 currency regions helping the USD to cement gains. The euro’s woes have been widespread and have caused interesting changes in G10 dynamics, with the SEK notably standing out as one of the best performers against the single currency, along win the AUD. The EU Ecofin faces an uphill task in restoring confidence in theMon, 15 Feb 2010 13:15:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-02-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-02-01.htmlA retreat in global equity markets to one-month lows and widening sovereign debt and credit spreads have raised the alert level among international investors, prompting outflows from commodities and emerging market currencies into safe havens of government bonds and the USD. With key technical levels giving way in major equity indices and G10 crosses, disappointing US non-farm payrolls data next week would be a setback for global recovery optimists, resulting in a further increase inMon, 01 Feb 2010 12:11:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-02-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-01-26.htmlA rebound in volatility follows this week’s breakdown in risk appetite and ongoing sovereign credit concerns, and testifies to the deeper running uncertainties that cloud the outlook for major currencies. The threat of a pullback in equities and commodities to December lows and the first signs of a levelling off in leading economic indicators should keep demand elevated for the USD through safe haven plays, though enthusiasm to go underweight risk may be tempered by the Fed’s January 27Tue, 26 Jan 2010 11:43:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-01-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-01-19.htmlPerceptions of a regime shift in the USD and bearish price action in GBP/G10 have stalled as the currency market ponders its first moves of the new year. A fall in the VIX below 18 and rally in the FTSE-100 through 5,500 have boosted demand for high yielding and commodity currencies, with Asian currencies also attracting support on speculation of policy tightening in Asia ex-Japan and China. As we enter the second half of January, the return to better liquidity levels may give a better senseTue, 19 Jan 2010 06:46:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-01-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-01-12.htmlMarket Outlook Sovereign credit market turbulence, threats of currency intervention and lower volatility are dictating flows in the major currencies as we approach a traditional year-end lull in activity and light trading volumes. Rising long term yields and higher term premia could temper enthusiasm to push equity indices higher and curb appetite for carry trades and pro-risk strategies. Beyond the short-term, the case for holding high yield currencies remains compelling based on actual andTue, 12 Jan 2010 12:35:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2010-01-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-12-14.htmlMarket Outlook: Sovereign credit market turbulence, threats of currency intervention and lower volatility are dictating flows in the major currencies as we approach a traditional year-end lull in activity and light trading volumes. Rising long term yields and higher term premia could temper enthusiasm to push equity indices higher and curb appetite for carry trades and pro-risk strategies. Beyond the short-term, the case for holding high yield currencies remains compelling based on actual andMon, 14 Dec 2009 12:33:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/fx-technical-strategy/2009-12-14.html