EURUSD made pull-back over the past few days, which we still think its wave four, but of one larger degree. However, its still unclear if wave (iv) found the lows or no. Ideally, fourth waves retrace for around 38.2% compared to wave three and they are also typically longer in time and more complex compared to wave two. With that said, traders should be prepared for deeper pull-back in the near-term, possibly even to 1.2940.

EUR

Cable is trading higher, forming a very nice, clear impulsive sequence which will extend much higher in days to come. The reason is sharp rise over the past few weeks, which seems to be a wave (iii), part of a larger five wave rally. This wave however, is now at resistance, so traders should be aware of a three wave pull-back in wave (iv).

gbp

We expect lower levels on dollar index after sharp fall in the last two weeks which definitely has a shape of a third wave price action. Notice that in this week price extended through the falling trend-line which is an important evidence that temporary lows are in, most likely bottom of a blue wave (iii). Recovery from 78.62 is slow and is sideways, so it should be corrective wave (iv) that will send market beneath 78.60 after a completed pull-back. However, test of 79.50 area is still possible before downtrend resumes.

dx