It is widely believed in market circles that the USD will go lower towards year end. We agree, based on both technical and fundamental facts. But the question is not if, but how, the Greenback will lose further ground. As observed during the last months, it is a moderate downtrend, interrupted always by recoveries. So the pendulum swings back and forth, on a down slope. We think that will be the case for the near future, too, measured by technical indicators of an overbought and oversold market situation. Knowing that alone could be quite useful in our daily trading ambitions.

Right now, and for today`s trading, the indicators are showing a neutral stance. We see only a sideways movement emerging today, although a still tradeable one. See the details in below`s major pairs list. Note the U.S. manufacturing index (IMS) for October at 16.00 CET. Expected is an increase in this economic indicator.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
Currently in an upswing and trading at 1.4760 this European morning, the euro will soon be overbought again intraday. We see an upper limit at 1.4810 and the lower of the expected sideways trend at 1.4710.

GBP / USD
The pound looks shaky against the dollar in early European trading and is right now at the 1.6365 mark. We consider prices around this level as a support for today and anticipate recoveries, but not beyond 1.6480.

USD / CHF
The dollar, currently trading at 1.0215 against the Swiss franc, is approaching its support level at 1.0185. We see the Greenback ranging between this level and 1.0260 today.

USD / JPY
The dollar is priced right now at 90.10 against the yen, in a recovery move. We see a pick up soon of this downtrend in today`s trading, most probably after touching the 90.50
resistance level.