It will not be the last time President Obama has to act like a snake charmer to cheer up the nation’s economic soul, but in his latest speech he did it so well that it even partially supported the dollar yesterday. The other partial support came from still-flickering stock markets in the feared wind of possible more bad news from the global banking system. For now, the decision time in Forex for an even stronger dollar still is waiting at the door of longer-term resistance lines in many pairs, including one visible in the trade-weighted value chart of the dollar. In the EUR / USD, this would be the 1.2500 line, around last November’s lows. Most probably that will eventually be broken on the downside, with the dollar bond market luring in even more investor money.
In today’s market, we expect some further strength in the dollar, but it will not be significant enough to come to a decision as to the near resistance levels in the major pairs, even not against the now suffering yen, surrounded to some extent by both homemade economic and political problems. See our detailed view in the major pairs’ outlook for today below. Today’s interesting U.S. economic data will be the durable goods orders for January (14:30 CET), known as a market mover. Expected is a slowdown of the decline in this leading indicator for future economic development.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Currently on a recovery move and trading at 1.2750 in early European hours, the pair is heading towards resistance at 1.2840. We expect that level to hold in today’s trading, and the resulting downward move to lead as far as the 1.2650 level.
GBP / USD
After its selloff by as much as 400 pips yesterday, cable is consolidating at lower levels and is currently trading at 1.4260. We see recovery moves to be limited today, not exceeding the 1.4320 level. Afterwards, more weakness is likely, testing the 1.4170 support level.
USD / CHF
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar is still range-bound between the 1.1700 and 1.1600 levels and is currently trading at 1.1640 in early European hours. We expect a further attempt to break the 1.1700 level today, leading eventually to 1.1790.
USD / JPY
The dollar is working hard in European morning trading to take another important resistance line at 98.00 against the yen, right now priced at 97.90. We expect this level to be broken somewhat on the upside in the next trading hours, but not to exceed the 98.50 level today.
In today’s market, we expect some further strength in the dollar, but it will not be significant enough to come to a decision as to the near resistance levels in the major pairs, even not against the now suffering yen, surrounded to some extent by both homemade economic and political problems. See our detailed view in the major pairs’ outlook for today below. Today’s interesting U.S. economic data will be the durable goods orders for January (14:30 CET), known as a market mover. Expected is a slowdown of the decline in this leading indicator for future economic development.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Currently on a recovery move and trading at 1.2750 in early European hours, the pair is heading towards resistance at 1.2840. We expect that level to hold in today’s trading, and the resulting downward move to lead as far as the 1.2650 level.
GBP / USD
After its selloff by as much as 400 pips yesterday, cable is consolidating at lower levels and is currently trading at 1.4260. We see recovery moves to be limited today, not exceeding the 1.4320 level. Afterwards, more weakness is likely, testing the 1.4170 support level.
USD / CHF
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar is still range-bound between the 1.1700 and 1.1600 levels and is currently trading at 1.1640 in early European hours. We expect a further attempt to break the 1.1700 level today, leading eventually to 1.1790.
USD / JPY
The dollar is working hard in European morning trading to take another important resistance line at 98.00 against the yen, right now priced at 97.90. We expect this level to be broken somewhat on the upside in the next trading hours, but not to exceed the 98.50 level today.
