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Daily Trading Forecast

ECB Expected to Cut Euro Rates

Thu, Oct 2 2008, 10:33 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG

The USD continued its bid tone in late Asian and early European trading, especially against the euro, which traded weaker against other currencies, too. Today at 13:45 CET, the ECB will publish their monetary policy, which, by wide expectations, includes an interest rate cut for the Eurozone this time. Some market participants expect even a substantial cut in the euro rates, an anticipation that could be disappointed. We would therefore not enter the market before the official ECB announcement.

With the USD heavily overbought now, we expect a consolidation / correction phase for the dollar in today’s trading to set in, which could well last for a few days before the Greenback can start another upleg.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The pair lost further ground in late Asian and early European trading and is currently priced at 1.3927 after a low of 1.3854. Due to the heavily oversold condition, we see first an upmove in the making, attacking the 1.4020 level, and then a see-saw market between that resistance and support at 1.3860. We would not enter the market before today’s important ECB rate decision at 13:45 CET.

GBP / USD
Cable is trading in a narrower range than other pairs, currently at 1.7662, and now entering the long-term support zone between 1.7500 and present levels. Since this pair is oversold now as well, we expect upward corrections in today’s trading, resulting in a trading range between 1.7730 and 1.7620.

USD / CHF
The dollar is currently trading in a clearly overbought condition against the Swiss franc, at 1.1303, after reaching a high so far of 1.1341. We see that point as the resistance against further upmoves today and anticipate downward correction moves as low as the 1.1250 support.

USD / JPY
In another countermove compared to other pairs, the dollar headed lower against the yen in Asian and early European trading, currently at 105.33, near its support at 105.10. In an upward correction move, the USD could test the 105.65 level before renewed weakness probes the strong support at 105.25 again.ated.

Published on  Thu, Oct 2 2008, 10:34 GMT