Daily Trading Forecast

Uncooperative Currency Markets

Tue, May 13 2008, 10:31 GMT
by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

Swiss e Trade AG


We have been baffled by currency movements over the last two days as the dollar fell against the Euro and Swiss franc but gained against Sterling and remained virtually unchanged against the Japanese yen.

We expect the U.S. dollar to resume its upward trend in today's trading but, due to the chaotic movements recently, will refrain from any forecast until a clear picture develops. See below for detailed analyses of the major currency pairs.

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
EUR / USD movements have come as a surprise to us and the rest of the market as we had forecast a lower EUR / USD. Despite this fact, we feel the EUR / USD, currently trading at 1.5484, will end lower in today’s trading. The first support we see at 1.5425 and, after this, next support is seen at 1.5364. EUR / USD movements have, as we stated, surprised us, but we urge traders to trade from the short side for today at prices over 1.5500; however, we have no specific forecast.

GBP / USD
The GBP / USD spiked to the current day’s high at 1.9586, after higher than expected CPI figures were reported this morning. Currently, the GBP / USD is trading at 1.9465, not far from the important support at 1.9410. We don’t see support being broken today despite Sterling’s weakness and advise traders to wait until a clearer picture develops. The overall opinion in the market is that Sterling will drop against the other major currencies but, as we said, we do not expect any major moves today and have no forecast.

USD / CHF
Over the last two trading sessions, Monday and last Friday, the USD / CHF attempted to break below support at 1.0410 but its attempts were unsuccessful. Currently, the pair is trading back at higher levels, at 1.0480. We see the currency pair likely to test resistance at 1.0510 in today’s or tomorrow’s trading session but, due to irregular movements with the dollar in the last two trading days, we have no forecast.

USD / JPY
The USD / JPY is currently trading at 103.70, which is near the middle of its recent trading range between support at 102.60 and resistance at 105.70. Technically, studies show the USD / JPY is overbought at this time so some further consolidation is necessary. In general, we expect prices to trade upwards but have no specific forecast for today.

Published on  Tue, May 13 2008, 10:32 GMT

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Swiss e Trade AG shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Swiss e Trade that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

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