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Investors Pare Forecasts for Fed Rate Cuts

Fri, Mar 23 2007, 02:49 GMT
by Hans Nilsson

CMS Forex


• The dollar recovered slightly on Thursday after yesterday’s sell-off when the Federal Reserve adjusted to a more neutral bias in its monetary policy. Today investors pared forecasts for Fed rate cuts.


• The EUR/USD was marginally lower, testing the 1.34 resistance. If this resistance is broken, it will be bullish for the pair. On the other hand, if the 1.33 support is broken, it will indicate a double top with bearish implications.

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Financial and Economic News and Comments

US & Canada
• The Conference Board reported its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.5% to 137.3 in February, after a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in January, compared with expectations for a 0.4% drop. The current number suggests a period of low to moderate growth in the US economy.


• Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 4,000 to 316,000 in the week ending March 17, the fewest since February 3, the US Labor Department said. New claims for the week ending March 10 were revised upward to 320,000 from an originally reported 318,000.The 4-week average of new claims last week fell to 326,000 from 329,750.


Europe
• UK retail sales rose a higher-than-expected 1.4% in February after a revised 1.5% drop in January, the Office for National Statistics said.


• The euro area (EA13) industrial new orders index fell 0.2% in January 2007 compared to December 2006. The index grew 1.8% m/m in December 2006 and 0.8% m/m in November. EU27 new orders fell 1.5% in January 2007, after increases of 2.7% m/m in December 2006 and 0.7% m/m in November.


Asia-Pacific
• Japan’s trade surplus widened more than expected in February. The surplus rose 7.7% y/y to ¥ 979.6 billion ($8.3 billion), the Ministry of Finance said. Exports climbed 9.7% y/y.


• Business sentiment among Japan’s largest manufacturers fell to 0.1 this quarter from 7.1 in the previous quarter, reflecting concern that export demand may slow. A positive number means optimists outnumber pessimists.

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