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Currency Matrix

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Currency Matrix

Mon, Jun 16 2008, 11:22 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW: The three favorites this week, in order, are $/JPY, Sterling and $/CAD. $/JPY is now trend up on the weekly chart, with an open-ended setup for July and bullish risk for Q3. Buy structure extends from 106.64 to combined weekly trend/July zone at 105.60/39/15. There is nothing above until 110.32 for the week and 112.14 for rest of June. Sterling isn’t officially trend down. But combined open-ended downside risk on both the July (under 1.9615) and Q3 (under 1.9665) points lower. Both are sell levels. Downside this week features intraweek gap from 1.9355 to expiring June level at 1.9120. Lastly, $/CAD is trend up and a nice buy against weekly trend/July support at 1.0091/42. But the weekly setup is neutral and widespread until 1.0332/62 is cleared. Expecting more of a two-way week, but with the emphasis on buying weakness for future rally. Of the others, the most noteworthy risk is in Aussie, where a break under bullish monthly trend at .9339 sees intraweek gap to .9175/07.

• US$ Matrix - Week of 16 June 2008

Published on  Mon, Jun 16 2008, 11:22 GMT

Currency Matrix

Sun, Jun 1 2008, 16:12 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW: The focus is on the June outlooks. The two main trend situations are in Aussie and MXP. Aussie remains trend up in all time frames – the monthly uptrend is .9404/.9339 – and projects to.9762. With the developing Q3 setup turning potentially open-ended above .9565, any push thru .9762 will reaccelerate the long-term rally. MXP is trend down and has the strongest look for the month, with redundant downtrends at 10.37/37/10.3961 (weekly), 10.5063/10.5262 (monthly) and 10.6768 (Q3). Minimum targets are Q3/Q2 levels at 10.2795 and 10.2176, before sharp drop-off. The most unpredictable setups are the breakout looks in Cable (outside 1.9660/55 or 1.9870/85) and Euro (1.9430/00 to 1.9620/25). Outside either end will trigger extension, though bullish-leaning weekly trends create an upward bias to start June. $/JPY and $/Swiss are in orderly upside corrections, as May’s neutral turn in monthly trend signals a rotation higher to developing Q3 downtrend/sell zones at 106.35/82 and 1.0715/85

• US$ Matrix - 2 June 2008

Published on  Sun, Jun 1 2008, 16:12 GMT

Currency Matrix

Mon, May 26 2008, 10:42 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW: The most well constructed picture this week is in Euro, where weekly trend leans bullish above 1.5615/1.5555 and the June setup points higher above 1.5620. That area provides a platform to structure longs against for run to closest resistance at 1.6035 this week and 1.6205 for June. $/CAD and Aussie also have excellent weekly trends going, and both have open-ended June risk at this point - $/CAD under .9905; Aussie above .9511. But each is partially neutralized by Q2 levels at .9700CAD and the more immediate Q2 zone at .9594/.9614 in Aus$. The other trending market is MXP, where weekly trend leans negative under 10.4415/10.4547 and the June setup is open below 10.5510. Again, downside is partially offset for the time being by a fixed Q3 (June) support forming at 10.2795. $/JPY, $/Swiss and Sterling all start the week neutral – but with breakdown potential under June trends at 102.15JPY and 1.0210/05CH and breakout risk above/below 1.9870 to 1.9755/45 in Cable.

• US$ Matrix - Week of 26 May 2008

Published on  Mon, May 26 2008, 10:42 GMT

US Dollar Matrix

Sun, May 18 2008, 22:48 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW: The big confrontations this week look to be bearish weekly trend at 1.0070/88CAD vs its June/weekly breakdown support at .9941/01, and the opposite weekly uptrend in Aussie vying against its Q2 target high zone at .9594/.9614. Although both long term zones are expected to hold for the week, a break/close thru opens the door to reaccelerated downside in the US$. Elsewhere, weekly momentum in Sterling is still bearish, but the failure to break down last week leaves a neutral setup. Bearish weekly trend is immediately above 1.9615/30; the larger (re)sell zone is the developing June area at 1.9755/90. Euro did turn its weekly trend neutral and can force larger correction high to May level at 1.5860. $/JPY and $/Swiss both have neutral setup and are expected to range trade. MXP is neutral in terms of weekly trend, but with negative bias that points toward 10.3270/10.2795 this week.

• US$ Matrix - Week of 19 May 2008

Published on  Sun, May 18 2008, 22:48 GMT

Currency Matrix

Sun, May 11 2008, 11:34 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW: The situation turns more mixed this week, with the rallies in $/JPY and $/Swiss showing signs of correction (weekly trend fell neutral vs JPY; the setup points lower vs Swiss) at the same time as weekly trend is freshly bearish in Sterling and Euro. Cable remains the single cleanest trade. Bearish weekly trend (sell zone) is at 1.9680/1.9730, with accelerated breakdown risk under May level at 1.9480. A close under there points to 1.9290 for the week; and 1.8975 for May. Euro also points lower on the weekly chart – but with closer weekly downtrend (smaller margin for error) at 1.5520/55 and less breakdown risk for May from 1.5345 to 1.5125. Action above weekly trend in both markets will see a larger jump in resistance. In $/JPY, the weekly setup is neutral from 101.91 to 104.12, with May base at 100.73. $/Swiss keys off weekly pivot at 1.0430/70 – staying below points to 1.0175/65; getting above to 1.0630. Lastly, MXP turned weekly trend from bearish to neutral and should see upside correct to May downtrend at 10.6596/10.6731.

• US Dollar Matrix - Week of 12 May 2008

Published on  Sun, May 11 2008, 11:34 GMT

Currency Matrix − Week of 5 May 2008

Mon, May 5 2008, 12:02 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW: Mostly neutral situations this week, as the main theme is the collision between bullish weekly trend in the USD and Q2/May resistance. As these longer-term hurdles start to approach, they increasingly create more of a two-way sequence in the market. Those boundaries are cleanest at 103.79 vs Q2/May zone at 105.85/106.06JPY; 1.0295/85 vs the same May/Q2 zone at 1.0735/65CH; 1.5665/80 weekly downtrend vs 1.5345 monthly uptrend in Euro; and 10.4780 downtrend in MXP vs its May supports at 10.3760 and 10.2795. The situations elsewhere are less crisp in terms of the boundaries, but with similar neutral trading situations seen in $/CAD, Aussie and Sterling. Of those three, potential movement is greatest under 1.0014CAD (to .9782 for May).

• US$ Matrix - 5 May 2008

Published on  Mon, May 5 2008, 12:02 GMT

Currency Matrix

Sun, Apr 27 2008, 11:42 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW: Some significant shifts last week – with potentially another larger one to come (in Sterling) in the week ahead. The main event last week was the downturn in weekly trend in Euro – the first time it is not bullish in 10 weeks. That downturn, combined with the failure to hold above fixed May hurdle at 1.5860, signals a correction lower. Expecting downside to 1.5440 this week and 1.5385 uptrend for May. Trend-wise, weekly trend in $/JPY remains bullish with excellent weekly trend/May support to buy against at 102.73/59. Target is 105.85 this week; likely 107.30 for May. Weekly trend also leans bullish above combined 1.0140/20 zone in $/Swiss, making that a buy for push to 1.0560/90 this week and 1.0765 in May. Sterling is initially neutral, but has a combined Q2/May/weekly breakdown zone at 1.9630/20/10. Falling under there points to 1.9375 for the week and 1.8975 for May/Q2. Lastly, MXP continues to trend lower, but can bounce from May support at 10.3760. Weekly trend turns neutral above 10.5005.

• US Dollar Matrix - Week of 28 April 2008

Published on  Sun, Apr 27 2008, 11:42 GMT

Currency Matrix

Sun, Apr 20 2008, 10:46 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW: The strongest trending market remains MXN, still in a full-blown weekly downtrend (at 10.5402/10.5404 this week) and pushing toward its combined expiring April/developing May supports at 10.3936/10.3760. Although that area should generate a bounce, the larger Q2 target remains deeper at 10.2176. The other current trending markets are $/JPY, freshly bullish (above 101.78 this week) and likely headed for Q2 resistance at 105.85, and Aussie$, also newly trend up above .9248/30 and headed for its April/May zone at .9439/53. Direction elsewhere is less clear, with Euro direction hinging on weekly/May zone at 1.5860/70 – above to 1.6060; below to 1.5555 – and Sterling having turned neutral last week, with widespread weekly setup from 2.0035/80 to 1.9685/30. Finally, $/CAD is also neutral after an outside week – but with developing May resistance levels at 1.0116 and 1.0248 hinting at further downside to come.

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Published on  Sun, Apr 20 2008, 10:46 GMT

Currency Matrix

Sun, Apr 13 2008, 10:55 GMT

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

Currency MatrixSM
14 April 2008


OVERVIEW: The three main trend trades, in order of priority, are MXN, Sterling and Aussie$. MXN is in a full-scale breakdown headed for 10.3936 for the month and 10.2176 for Q2. Bearish weekly trend is the driving force – and sell zone – above at 10.6116/10.6351 this week. Sterling is trend down on its weekly and day charts, with a negative weekly setup under combined weekly trend/Q2 area at 1.9880/1.9910. The trigger to accelerate lower is getting under the Q2 breakdown level at 1.9630. Finally, weekly trend in Aussie leans bullish this week above .9197/86, but is already inside its intramonth upside gap from .9212 to .9439/66. Elsewhere, Euro has the biggest potential for movement this week, with breakout risk below weekly uptrend at 1.5755/20 or above April(weekly) zone at 1.5855/(1.5915). Both $/JPY and $/Swiss are widespread and neutral from 98.51 to 102.71JPY and .9895/.9790 to 1.0175CH.

• US$ Matrix - 14 April 2008

Published on  Sun, Apr 13 2008, 10:55 GMT

Currency Matrix

Thu, Apr 10 2008, 14:57 GMT
by William Basa

Global Market Research, Inc. (GMR)

OVERVIEW:

The main directional mover is MXN. Fresh bearish downtrends on the weekly and monthly charts, combined with last week’s settle under breakdown levels for both Q2 (10.6148) and April (10.5956), points sharply lower. Minimum targets are 10.3936 for the month (also the closest weekly support) and 10.2176 for Q2. Elsewhere, still looking for countertrend trades to distant monthly trends at 104.47/77JPY, 1.0560CH and 1.5090 uptrend support in Euro.

Weekly trend turned neutral in both $/JPY and $/Swiss (as well as turning bearish in Sterling), indicating those corrections are underway. Of the four majors, $/JPY has the best directional bias this week from 100.70 to 104.47/88. Lastly, Aussie$ has a breakout situation brewing, with inside ranges on both the weekly and monthly charts leaving acceleration points at .9243 resistance (gap to .9439 above) and .9056/37 support (to .9921/08 under there).

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Published on  Thu, Apr 10 2008, 14:57 GMT